Research On The Price Risk Of Listed Tourism Companies

As a result of a series of macro-and micro-economic factors, the price ofshares will wave with the changes of these factors almost everyday, so it isfeasible that using the prices of share as a key indicator on the measure of therisk of the company’s operation. This paper selected10typical listedcompanies of tourism, then analysis and measure the risk of their share prices,and analyses the correlation between the influencing factors and the RSV.Firstly, this paper explains the selected material background, appearance ofthe issue, study implications, research methods and other points. It makes adetailed review on the domestic and foreign literatures about VaR, themarket(price) risk, listed companies of tourism. And briefly describe the mainresearch method: linear moving average method, distribution fitting testing,the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE), the VaR of distributions. And thenstate the main structure of the paper and the using of main research method ofeach part.Secondly, through collected the data of listed companies of tourism, andselected10typical companies by the standard over the time of listed, stabilityof operation, localization, industrial classification. Then gather theinformation from the annual reports of listed companies and some website offinance and economics, and analyze the current situation of listed companiesof tourism from the aspect of branches, business scope, the mainbusiness(from the inspection of main business income), main financial dataand so on; then Calculated the Corresponding trend values of each tourismcompany by the data of share prices, obtained the RSV using the actual valuesand trend values of share prices. Tested the RSV time series of each companyby using the distribution fitting testing of A-D test, K-S test, Chi-square test,established the best fitting distribution of each company, estimated theparameter of each distribution model; calculated the VaR of the RSV of each tourism company on the basic of these distribution model.Finally, analysis the correlations between the selected economic indicatorsand the monthly RSV of these10listed companies of tourism.The research shows that the risk of share price of the typical listedcompanies of tourism isn’t simply fitting the normal distribution, but fitting todifferent distributions; The VaR is good at forecasting of fluctuation of RSVof the share price of tourism companies; there are certain correlations amongthe total retail sales of social consumer goods, CPI, M1, Interbank OfferedRate and the fluctuation of share prices of tourism companies.