Research On The Risk Features Of Treasury Yield Curve

National bonds has a very important role in the bond market,We canextract interest rate term structure which can reflect the price of thegovernment bonds,and Pricing existed bonds or new bonds issued in themarket.On the other hand,we also can grasp the risk feature of the interestrate term structure for portfolio management.For the current research,thereis no unified views for the method of fitting the term structure of interestrate,and not very in-depth study of changes in the term structure of interestrates Regularity. It is particularly necessary for the study of changes in thestructure of the law of the term at this stage in depth.The main work andconclusions of this study include:1.Summarize the results of previous studies, analysis the deficienciesof the previous studies,presented in this article possible researchdirections；2.From the actual development of China’s bond market to analyzemainstream method of fitting the term structure and itsapplicability,Ultimately determine the more appropriate method to fit theterm structure of interest rates.3.Since2009,four stages interval is divided into recovery、overheat、stagflation、recession、and we use principal component analysis methodsand SVAR model empirical to analysis the four stages of Chinese InterestRate Term Structure,To grasp the risk feature of national debt termstructure from the part to the overall,And summed up the general laws ofthe changes in the term structure of Treasury rate.4. Finally making some recommendations for the management of risk according to the feature we get from the previous research5. Overall,it is very different from the market of developed country inTerm Structure of Interest Rates,In particular,we should guard against thisrisk.