The Asymmetric Effects Of Monetary Policy On The Real Estate Price

Since the last century, the effect of real estate industry on economic developmentand financial stability has become key concern of economists and central banks.Especially the relationship between monetary policy and the real estate price hascaused wide public debate in the domestic and foreign academic circles. Aboutwhether real estate prices should be included in the target system of the monetarypolicy still has the story, but with the important role of real estate prices in thenational economy, the long term and short term effect on the real estate industrycaused by the policy should be considered in the category while making the monetarypolicy.So far, at home and abroad for monetary policy related variables and the real estateprice relationship have had certain research, but mainly in the linear assumption onthe basis. However, the fact is often complicated, compared with a simple linearmodel, nonlinear may be better depict the relation between monetary policy mainvariables and real estate. Therefore, this paper, based on the theoretical analysis, usesa nonlinear model to examine the long-term relationship between monetary mainvariables and real estate prices in different economic cycle.After doing the empirical test and analysis on related monthly data of our countryfrom2000to2011years, the upshot is that real estate prices on China’s monetarypolicy reaction exists asymmetry, the specific performance is real estate pricesresponse to monetary policy of macroeconomic regulation in different ways indifferent levels of economic development. When GDP lags two issue of growth rate ishigher than15%，the effect of tighter monetary policy is good, and when GDPgrowth lags two issue of below5%，expansionary monetary policy is very limitedimpact. At the same time, the empirical results also showed that our country takesmonetary policy transmission to real estate from credit channel is superior to interestrates spillover effects at present, but the influence of two way potential are still to bemining.