The Theoretical And Empirical Research On Influence Of Agricultural Futures Market On Agricultural Production

With its unique function of price discovery and hedging, agricultural futuresmarket plays an important role to slow down the price volatility in the spot marketand to guide farmers reasonable arrangement of agricultural production. At present, inChina, the integration of global economy makes agricultural production facingdomestic and abroad double risks. Meanwhile, it is difficult for farmers to sale theproduce. In this context, it is of great practical significance to study the impact ofagricultural production made by the agricultural futures market, to analyze thefunctions degree of the current agricultural futures market, to explore actionmechanisms and Specific measures of agricultural production served by theagricultural futures market, and to provide a theoretical basis for the furtherConsolidation and improvement of its system.In this paper, firstly it expounds the overview on the development of ourCountry’s agricultural production and the agricultural futures market. We are able tofind out the relevant factors in restricting our Country’s agricultural production andthe development of agricultural futures markets by domestic vertical and horizontalinternational comparison. And analysis is in the following. Secondly, using pricediscovery function and hedging function of agricultural futures markets as the point ofpenetration to thoroughly analyze the mechanism of how our agricultural futuresmarket affects agricultural production. For instance, agricultural futures market canbe able to strengthen the role of market orientation of agricultural production, topromote the development of agricultural industrialization, information technology,standardization and to reduce the impact of accession to the WTO on agriculturalproduction. Thirdly through stationary test, cointegration test and causality analysis,empirical analysis has confirmed that soybean futures prices has a strong guiding ofspot prices, but soybean spot prices doesn’t affect futures prices a lot. Moreover, bybasis analysis and liquidity analysis it is confirmed that hedging of soybean futurescontracts can effectively transfer the risk and ensure farmers’ profits. Meanwhile,starting with the multi-factors of influencing the agricultural production, we furtherempirically examine the influence degree of the agricultural production made by ourCountry’s agricultural futures market.In addition, the study shows that we are still in the stage of small-scale production and farmers’ education level is not high. It is difficult to join in the futuresmarket and farmers don’t make full use of futures market. Therefore at the end ofthe paper, it offers some proposals which are aimed at the present situation thatagricultural futures are not widely used in our agricultural production. It requires togradually expanded traded varieties, strengthen the legal construction of the futuresmarket as well as futures knowledge, improve the information system construction ofagricultural futures market, guide farmers to be involved in the futures marketindirectly through the "Order+futures" model to seek ways of increasing income.