Research On The Driving Effects Real Estate Industry On The Urban Economic Development Of Baotou

With the constant enlargement of real estate development and investment scale,relatively strong of the supply and demand market, gradual perfection of the supply structure,the influence of Baotou real estate industry for urban economic development has becamelarger and larger. In view of this, this paper combines the development of regional economy,and then explores the driving effect real estate industry on the urban economy developmentof Baotou from the two aspects: one is direct driving effects of the real estate industry for thetotal economy, and the second is indirect driving effects of real estate industry through therelevant industry on urban economy. Guidance can be provided for the coordination ofBaotou’s real estate industry and urban economic development.A paper is consisted of theoretical analysis and empirical study. The former first definethe concepts of real estate and urban economic development, then analyze the problemthrough the following two aspects: the theory of industrial structure and mechanism for thedriving effects of real estate industry on the development of urban economy. The latter bytwo respects: direct and nonlinear regression model should be adopted in the direct drivingeffects. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis should be contained in the indirectdriving effects. In the first, adopting time series models, error correction model for reflectingthe long-term and short-term effects can be established through stationary test, granger-causality test and co-integration test. Second, using panel data models, individual fixedeffects constant coefficient models can be established by the choosing and testing of models.Comparison of fitting effect with two models then made. At last, countermeasures andsuggestions of promoting the development of Baotou real estate will be proposed.Throngh the study of empirical, following conclusions can be concluded: Firstly, by theestablishment of nonlinear regressive model, the driving effects of Baotou’s real estateindustry for GDP was measured0.72. Next, by the comparison of fitting results betweenunivariate analysis and multivariate analysis, relatively high accurate results of multivariateanalysis can be made.Then, by the means of applying panel data models, this thesis indicatesthat the real estate industry of Baotou had driving effects of0.27for industry,0.81forconstruction,0.02for agriculture,0.84for the transport industry,0.23for the retail of goodsconsuming and0.06for post and telecommunications,0.16for domestic trade,0.13forforeign trade,0.04for tourism industry and0.01for financial industry.