Asymmetric Rate Output Effect Of Industry Analysis

The focus of research on monetary policy transmission was often confined to the study of monetary policy on the economy as a whole, while ignoring the asymmetry for the non-overall level of the economy, such as the impact of monetary policy for the industry and region. Since China is in a critical stage of promoting the liberalization of interest rates, the asymmetry on the industry level brought by the implementation of interest rate policy, which is an important mediating variables, is also worth attention and study.This paper studies the asymmetry of the impact put by China’s interest rate changes on the output of different industry. The main contents are as follows:1、Introduce and summarize the domestic and foreign literature on interest rates and output.2、Analyze the asymmetry of the impact on the industry level output caused by the interest rate changes as well as the effects of the impact on real output effects caused by nominal interest rate changes and on real output effects caused by nominal output by using the VAR model based on model of two departments, taking the quarterly data of three major industries from1996Q1to2010Q4as the sample, Moreove,the article use sevaral methods such as the ADF unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition;3、The empirical results indicate that interest rates have notable industry output effects,which is more eminent for norminal interest rates.What is more, the industry output effects brought by the implementation of interest rate policy are asymmetry on the industry level,during which the first industry reacts more sensible to the changes of interest rates;4、Then the article analyze the asymmetry of interest rates on the industry level from the perspective of the investment effects and consume effects of interest rates on output. Results show that the output effects of interest rates of the second and the tertiary industry have more notable investment effects, which has more notable consume effects of the first industy.5、Summarize the empirical results and make policy recommendations.