Environment Kuznets Curve For CO₂in China And Different Regions

Environment is the foundation of human society, economic development is the necessary way of the progress of human society. If we are only concerned about economic growth and ignore the quality of environment, it will lead to the deterioration of the environment and the exhaustion of resources, and this will be a threat to human survival and development. If we pursuit environment quality excessively, it will hinder economic development, and lead to the slow development of human society. Therefore, in the process of human development, it is essential to coordinate the relationship between economic growth and environment quality. Since the industrial revolution, human society has been greatly developed, however, resulted in the destruction of the ecological environment. In order to study the relationship between environment quality and economic development, Grossman and Krueger (1991) proposed the Environmental Kuzents Curve (EKC), subsequently many scholars focus on the EKC theory and empirical research.In recent years, the economic development not only destroy the environment, but also affect the ecosystems. The emissions of greenhouse gas caused the global warming, the global warming made redistribution of the global precipitation, ablation of glaciers and permafrost, sea level rise, not only harm the natural balance of the ecosystem, threatening the human food supply and living environment also, it influences human survival and development seriously. Greenhouse gases include a variety of gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) has the largest effect, while China is one of the major countries of the global carbon dioxide emissions, and has made a commitment to reduce carbon emissions. In the paper, we use EKC to study the relationship between China’s economic development and carbon dioxide emissions, and find some meaningful conclusions.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and China’s relevant departments, we estimate the per capita carbon dioxide emissions of China’s29provinces (Chongqing is classified in Sichuan, Tibet’s data is missing), during1995to2010. Because the parameter model may have the model set wrong shortcomings, if we can not guarantee the robustness of the model, we will not be able get the right conclusions. And so far, there is no suitable model of Environment Kuzents Curve model for China.Therefore, for the first time, we use non-parametric model to study the EKC of China, and find some new conclusion. Firstly, we use non-parametric fixed effects model and random effects model of panel data to analysis the EKC of China’s carbon dioxide emissions, and come to some conclusions. Secondly, in order to explain the causes of China’s carbon dioxide Environment Kuzents Curve, we divide China’s29provinces into3types by cluster analysis-the developed regions, the mid-level regions and the developing regions. Then, we use non-parametric methods analyze the per capita Environment Kuzents Curve of these three regions.We find that the shape of China’s per capita carbon dioxide Environment Kuzents Curve is N type, the two turning points at33,400yuan and50600yuan (2005as the base year), followed we analyze the reasons for this morphology. This indicating that China’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions has a downward trend within a certain period, but is still on the upswing now. Through the analysis of the per capita carbon dioxide Environment Kuzents Curve of the three regions, we find that:the per capita carbon dioxide EKC of the different regions is in the different stages of the EKC classic invert U-shaped path. The per capita carbon dioxide EKC of the developed regions is close to the inverted U-shaped turning point, and the mid-level regions is in the middle left of the inverted U-shaped path, and the developing regions is in the beginning of the inverted U-shaped path. The more developed regions, the per capita carbon dioxide Environment Kuzents Curve is smoother, the per capita carbon dioxide emissions is higher, but its growth rate is lower. For example, the developed regions have the highest per capita carbon dioxide emissions (the average is about7.4-7.9tons/person), and the growth is lowest (the average is about1ton/ten thousand GDP); but the developing regions have the lowest per capita carbon dioxide emissions (the average is about4.4-4.5 tons/person), the growth rate is highest (the average is about8.5ton/ten thousand GDP), and the growth rate is increasing.Finally, we analyze the reasons why the carbon dioxide emissions is difficulty to reduction, made four policies recommendations. Firstly, we should perfect the natural resources and environmental costs accounting system, make the carbon dioxide emissions into the government performance evaluation system, and according to the economic development and carbon dioxide emissions of different regions, make appropriate policies and some relevant laws, provision carbon emissions standards, and collection carbon dioxide emissions taxes. Secondly, we should transform the mode of economic growth, adjust the industrial structure, speed up technological progress. Thirdly, we should improve the efficiency of energy utilization, develop nuclear, hydraulic, solar energy, wind energy, geothermal, tidal and other clean energy. Fourthly, improve citizen consciousness of energy conservation and carbon dioxide emissions reduction, advocate green travel, reduce unnecessary heating and power. Through the above methods we can reduce the carbon dioxide emissions, shorten the Environmental Kuznets Curve turning point forming process, and reduce the peak of the Environmental Kuznets Curve turning point, as soon as possible to get the stage where the economic growth and per capita carbon dioxide emissions reduce.