Empirical Study Of Financial Early-Warning Analysis Of Real Estate Listed Company Basing On Financial Health Evaluaion

Real estate, whose products refer to almost every aspect of national life, plays a significant part in national economy. And the development of real estate means a lot for a prosperous and progressive society. However, many real estate listed companies reveal financial problems under the influence of financial crisis and national policies. Therefore, it is essential to make some evaluations to those real estate listed companies according to their financial features and research status, and it will also be a severe issue to be solved. The real estate market in China is still developing though not mature. At the edge of the end of eleventh five years and the start of twelfth five years, the challenge for real estate companies is severe, leaving alone the negative prospect of China economy and stock market. Therefore, the financial crisis may more probably happen, and the research on such crisis is meaningful. It will help managers, government and investors to improve their judgments of the company.Under the analysis on the development of real estate market in our country, the article studies the prediction of corporate bankruptcy model domestic and overseas, including Univariate Model, Multivariable Model, Logistic Model and Neural Network Model. By evaluating and filtering the financial measurements and non-financial measurements of real estate listed companies, the prediction of corporate bankruptcy system is established under the assistance of statistical method. With a choice of141real estate listed companies as the research sample, the paper gives a thorough analysis on the development situations and industry features of real estate. It makes a scientific classification of all samples with references to the research status by using factor analysis and cluster analysis. The samples are classified by4types ranging from’Excellent’,’Fine’,’Ordinary’and ’Poor’. At the same time, the paper also sets an evaluation index model of financial health degree by using factor analysis and discriminant analysis. The inspection is also needed to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model. Finally, the realization of the model is accomplished by the usage of Excel. According to the research of the paper, the restriction and suggestion of the research will be proposed at last. The destination of the paper aims to become to enlighten managers to find financial problems so that the performance of the company may be promoted by the devotion of the research.The result of the research shows the reasonability to have such a course that the financial health degree model of real estate listed company can be built by analysis including factor analysis, cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. After the inspection, the accuracy rate of training samples can reach90%, and for testing samples, it can reach93.4%. Therefore, the model has a high level of accuracy and reliability. Meanwhile, the applicability of the model is also improved by the establishment of its Excel function. Basing on this research, the financial problems can be found and solved in time, followed by a better performance of a company. It is of great use of the model in predicting the corporate bankruptcy.