A Research Based On Managerial Overconfidence Of Accounting Fraud Of A-share Listed Companies

In recent years, the phenomenon of accounting fraud of listed companies in the global economic environment long-standing, causing inestimable harm on global social economy, impacting on the order of the securities market seriously. Accounting fraud of listed company not only mislead the right decision of enterprise investors, creditors and other stakeholders, making heavy losses to the interests, and also produce many adverse effects on the company itself to the long-term development, impeding the long-term of objectives. What’s more, In addition, the market resources effectively configuration and national macro policy control function is harmed by frauds. The domestic and foreign relevant scholars have researched to the cause, identification, prevention and control measures of accounting fraud from traditional economics, institutional economics, information economics, game theory and many other kinds of theoretical angle, which means a lot of the formation of the theoretical system of accounting fraud. However, in practice, the public company accounting frauds has not been effectively controlled, and many scholars in our country at present is still trying to study the accounting fraud from a new angle, trying to find more effective prevention countermeasures of accounting fraud of listed companies, and further perfecting the accounting fraud theory.This article is based on the theory of behavioral economics theory as the breakthrough point, researching China’s accounting fraud of listed companies from the basic theory of overconfidence. This paper’s research content is divided into seven parts:The first part is the introduction. Firstly, it introduces the background and significance. Secondly, it elaborates on the research contents and mentality of this article. The second part reviews and summarizes related research on accounting fraud and managers of overconfidence. The third part is the related theory of accounting fraud and overconfidence, defining the accounting fraud, overconfidence and managerial overconfidence respectively, and illustrating the theoretical basis, analyzing on the relevance between overconfidence and managers of the accounting frauds basing on that. The fourth part is the research design, putting forward the research hypotheses, introducing the sample, data selection, the variable settings and models of overconfidence of managers and measurement methods respectively. The fifth part conducts descriptive statistic of research samples and matching samples, and empirically assumptions of this paper hypothesis. The sixth part put forward the proposal of our country’s accounting fraud prevention and control, from the managers, corporate governance structure and the relevant supervisory department under managerial overconfidence environment respectively. The last part summarizes the innovations, limitations and future research direction.In the theoretical analysis phase, according to the overconfidence and accounting fraud theory, the author proposed the correlativity hypothesis between managerial overconfidence and accounting fraud and some relative hypothesis about the corporate governance structure feature’s influence on accounting fraud under the circumstance of managerial overconfidence. In the empirical analysis phase, the author processes descriptive statistics and regression analysis to verify whether the hypothesis in reality is true. The empirical analysis reaches the following conclusions:(1) there are significant positive correlations between the overconfidence degree of managers and accounting fraud;(2) in the case of managerial overconfidence, there are significant positive correlations between the size of board, independence of directors and general manager duality degree and accounting fraud. Summarizing the theoretical analysis and the empirical results, the author puts forward three policy recommendations to control the accounting fraud of listed companies which are under the circumstance of managerial overconfidence:to right managers’overconfidence cognitive biases:to set up reasonable governance structure:to improve the punishment power.In this paper, the author uses behavioral economics theory as the basic theory, adopts the empirical method to research the accounting fraud problem of listed companies from the point of managerial overconfidence. This research not only enriches the accounting fraud theory and the overconfidence theory, but also complement the interdisciplinary research method between accounting fraud and behavioral economics. The accounting fraud prevention and control countermeasures will have important practical significance to China’s listed companies.