The Impact Of The U.S. Financial Crisis On China’s Exports To The U.S.

The outbreak of the worst financial crisis in2007since the World War Ⅱ, so far has been five years. Whether the high consumption patterns in the United States will be maintained in the post-crisis, whether the changes in U.S. demand and the appreciation in the exchange rate of RMB will affect China’s exports to the U.S., these phenomena attract our attention on China’s exports to the U.S. again. As the most important trading partner of the United States, changes in U.S. demand have a tremendous impact on China’s export trade:before the financial crisis, China’s exports to the U.S. keeps a steady and rapid growth; after the financial crisis, the growth of China’s exports to the United States is not stable, we found that it experienced three fluctuations during this period, it can be called twists and turns. In addition, the financial crisis caused a recession on U.S. economy, the dollar depreciated; on the contrary, RMB real exchange rate appreciated because of a favorable macroeconomic environment, the high interest rate policy, as well as a huge trade surplus. The impact of depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the RMB on China’s export trade can not be ignored. At the same time, other developing countries which export to the U.S. do not bear a similar appreciation pressure, we should pay more attention to the price substitution effect of the exchange rate.In this paper, combining with the "stock-mixxed absorption analysis", we analysis the impact of the financial crisis on china’s exports to the U.S. from U.S. demand and the RMB exchange rate issue. Taking into account consumer credit and household net worth’s affect on consumer demand, we study the impact of relevant variables on China’s exports to the the United States, it forms the analysis method which combines flows and stocks. Taking into account the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the paper further studys the price substitution effect of exchange rate changes and the effect of price elasticity on China’s exports to the U.S.. This part constitutes the total path of the impact of the financial crisis on China’s export trade. In order to reflect the comprehensiveness and comparability of our analysis, the article does a comparative analysis of total U.S. imports, the proportion of imports and China’s exports to the United States.Combining with the structure of the U.S. demand, the marginal propensity to consume research as well as the United States consumer’s own particularity, we find that the impact of the United States structure of demand, especially the consumer demand, on China’s export trade is representative, which provides a guideline for the structural analysis. structural analysis includes two mutually undertake part:first, the analysis of demand structure, which includes three parts:the impact of U.S. consumer demand, investment demand, government spending demand on China’s exports to the United States, second, combining with consumption and investment theory, we build a simple model of the consumer goods and investment goods exports on the basis of end-use classification.On the basis of the above analysis, this paper makes a empirical model. First, we use a cointegration relationship to analysis the long-term relationship between the variables and China’s exports to the U.S.. Second, taking into account the short-term impact of the financial crisis, we use the VECM model to analysis the short-term relationship between these variables and China’s exports to the U.S.. Third, we use the impulse response function and variance decomposition to explore the impact of the financial crisis on China’s exports to the United States. Finally, we draw the following main conclusions:total path analysis finds that U.S. demand factors (including household net worth and consumer credit) and the real effective exchange rate are the main factors which affect China’s exports to the United States, the price elasticity effect of the exchange rate and substitution effect of the exchange rate is very significant. A comparative study of the proportion and the total of U.S. imports gets similar conclusions, by the total comparative study we find that household net worth and consumer credit have a relatively large impact on China’s exports to the United States than the U.S. total imports. Based on structural analysis, we found that the U.S. private consumption demand gives a greatest impact on China’s exports to the United States. The empirical model of consumer goods exports draws the conclusion that household net worth, personal disposable income and RMB real effective exchange rate are the major factor on China’s consumer goods exports to the United States. According to this two main conclusions, we make relevant recommendations also in the light of the background of financial crisis and the appreciation of the RMB, we hope to provide reference and help for long-term stable development of China’s export trade.