The Actuarial Forecast On The Gap Of China’s Urban Employee Pension Fund In The Future

Due to partially funded social endowment insurance system reform is carried outlater, reform cost can unable to digest in a short time. Along with narrow investmentchannels and lower income of pension, and the rapidly arrival of an aging population,China’s pension payments will face a big risk in the future. In order to maintain thesustainable and healthy development of social endowment insurance system,safeguard legitimate rights of the aged people and social stability, it has become themajor tasks of actuarial forecasting social endowment pension fund payment and gapin the next longer period. By the limit of my reference, this paper just actuarialforecasts China’s urban enterprise employee pension fund payment and gap over thenext30years. This article includes six parts:The first chapter is for introduction, details the background and significance ofthe paper, and then illustrates the research objects, methodology and innovation.The second chapter is about basis of the urban employee insurance relevanttheory. Showing the pension fund’s concept, financing mechanisms, the evolution ofChina’s endowment insurance system and related literature review home and abroad.The third chapter describes our country’s current situation of urban employeepension fund gap, and analyzes deeply the reasons.The fourth chapter is for actuarial forecast of China’s urban employee pensionfund payment and gap in the next30years. This chapter is divided into two parts: thefirst is forecast of urban enterprise employee population in the next30years which isbased on the logistic model of population projection; the second is for buildingpooling accounts payment model, then forecasting pension fund payment in thecondition of different pension replacement rate, and forecasting the future of thepension fund gap.The fifth chapter is about policy advice of China’s urban enterprise employeepension fund payment and gap, which is based on the analysis of the previouschapters.The sixth chapter is about this paper’s conclusions and inadequacies. This partsummaries the paper’s main conclusions and the limitation of research, and thenprovides the imagination of further study.Summary of analysis of this paper and concluded that: the future’s pensionfund gap is different in the condition of different pension replacement rate; at thesame time when the government makes measures to make up the pension fund gapshould consider the balance of pension fund gap and the living standards of retirees.