Research On Stock And Bond Investment Strategies Of Securities Investment Fund

From “The Provisional Management Measure on Securities Investment Fund”promulgated to “Securities Investment Fund Law” formally implemented, from traditionalclosed-end funds to the emergence of open-ended funds as a mainstream of direct investmenttools, the scale and structure of securities investment funds have been developing rapidly, ithas become an important force in the security market during a short span of ten years.Securities investment fund is still in the early stage of development, due to lack of knowledgeand experience of management, there is randomness and blindness when fund managers makethe investment decisions. This way of investment could lead to the rate of return oninvestment lower than the personal saving rate, thereby affecting the interests of individualinvestors and the operating results of company. Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the wayof investment to bring satisfactory returns for investors.Through systematic analysis and summarization of the domestic and foreign researchresults about securities investment fund, this dissertation analyzed the situation of the two biginvestment markets-stock market and bond market respectively from a new perspective, thenproposed the methods of investment decisions for fund managers. Finally, the validity ofoptimal models was validated by simulating stock and bond investment operations. Theproposed countermeasures based on the application of the optimal models can guide fundmanagers to deal with investment effectively. The research ideas are as follows:1. After studying the exist theories at home and abroad about the ability of securityselecting and market timing which influenced the achievement of the fund, and the methodsof stock and bond investment decisions, the dissertation indicated the problems in the currentstudy and the direction of the research, the ANP model and bond yield curve model wereproposed.2. Taking fundamental analysis as a starting point, analyzing its effect on securitiesinvestment fund, this dissertation set up the evaluating index system of the investment valueof listed company in five aspects, included macro environment, industry environment,management, financial position and earnings forecast, then feedback of relation among theelements was studied and the weight of each element in the system was calculated.3. Taking bonds from Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) as the research object, fourregression models based on the length of time about redemption date were designed. A varietyof statistical tests were used to determine the effective model initially. Using predictionmethods, analyzing the validity of different models to draw the conclusion that the cubicregression model was optimal.4. Based on stock and bond investment model for empirical research. In the operation ofstock investment aspect, this dissertation took the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) as samples, calculated the final results by combining ANP model after linear quantization eachindex, and selected the optimal stock in the end. In the operation of bond investment aspect,according to two functions of the bond yield curve to select or avoid bond, one was judgingthe distance between the real rate of return and bond yield curve, the other was predicting theopening price of new bond. The empirical results show that the investment using regressionmodels to select stock or bond can get a higher rate of return.