| At present, the medium-small investors dominated the investment market of Chinese securities, their capital scale, R&D strength, capabilities of collect information and other aspects are incomparable with institutional investors, who belongs to the weak side. Some irrational investment behaviors prevail in the long term, such as follow the trend blindly and chase sell. For the situation of excessive speculation, the Chairman of Securities Regulatory Commission, Guo Shuqing has made six speeches about advocating the establishment of medium-small investors to value investing, rational investment, long-term value investment philosophy. So far, a considerable amount of studies on securities investment value has been found. However, very few invest strategy is suitable for medium-small investors. To guide the securities market, it is essential for providing a simple investment strategy.Combined with the company’s strategic theory PEST analysis, industry analysis, and company fundamental analysis, the potential factors affecting the development of enterprises are qualitatively analyzed in this thesis. Considering the superiority of the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers in the complexity of the security market and the ambiguity of the human mind, the form of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is used to express the decision-making information. Based on this idea, multi-attribute decision-making method of the industry analysis and group decision-making method of individual stock selection are proposed. Finally, three common technical indicators are selected to analyze the current share price level of the securities as well as the possible future trends. This analytical approach complements the lack of fundamental analysis methods.Using technical analysis combined with fundamental analysis, the investment value of listed companies is thoroughly investigated. Specific research results can be summarized as below:According to process of people’s actual investment decision-making, the analysis about investment will be divided into three levels:industry analysis, stock analysis, technical analysis. First of all, this paper conduct a comprehensive analysis of the external environment for the industry, and determined the five main impact indicators: political and legal factors, economic factors, industry economic cycle, the life cycle of the industry, as well as competitiveness of the industry, build a first-grade evaluation index system used these five indexes, then calculated the comprehensive value of first-grade index to distinguish the performance of different industry. Secondly, study on the main factors of internal environment, screening out the influence factors of company’s development potential:management ability of enterprise, company’s competition ability, profit ability, growth ability, debt-paying ability, constructs second-grade evaluation index system based on these indicators, identify the enterprise with the maximum investment value. Finally, predict the movements of stock price in the future using technical indicators, in order to help investors to choose the best time to invest, ensure the maximum investment return.The possibility theory is introduced into the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, expanded the concept of possibility mean and standard deviation for triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Given the new distance of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers based on possibility mean. Study on the multi-attribute decision making problem in which the attribute weights are known, and the attribute values are the triangular intuition fuzzy numbers. In practical decision-making problems, define the positive ideal point and negative ideal point for the schemes of triangular fuzzy number. Finally, multi-attribute decision making for industry analysis with TOPSIS method of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, the results indicated that in the industries of healthcare, financial services, and basic materials, the health care industry with the highest growth potentiality among these sectors.Study on the multi-attribute group decision making problem, in which the attribute weights are completely unknown and the attribute values are the triangular intuition fuzzy numbers, and the weights of decision makers are given by linguistic variables. In the first place, the weights of experts are determined in terms of the vote model of intuition fuzzy set. In the second place, the weights of attributes can be determined by utilizing the information entropy defined by Minkowski distance of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Then on the basis of the theory of triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and possibility, given a new ranking method based on possibility mean and standard deviation for triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. A multi-attribute group decision making method because of possibility mean and standard deviation is proposed at last, and it will be used for stock selection case. The consequence demonstrated AIER EYE HOSPITAL has more advantages than JIUJIUJIU, NANJING PHARMACEUTCAL and TONGRENTANG.We select three of the more commonly used indicators MACD, RSI and OBV from hundred kinds of technical indexes.And describe the design principle, the use of law and applicable situation respectively. Practice has proved that, these three indicators can be complementary to a certain extent, it will make better prediction effect used them together. We analysis the price trend of AIER EYE HOSPITAL and TONGRENTANG Using MACD, RSI and OBV indexes, and found that it’s not a good time to investment for both short-term and long-term investors. But for short-term investors, it’s a good time for invest TONGRENTANG. |
