| The three oil crisises after Twentieth Century has caused a great effect on theglobal economy. Stock market is a weather glass of the real economy. If the marketis an efficient market, oil price volalility will be embodied in stock market beforereal economy. This essay is based on a summary of these studies by Chinese andoverseas scholars. By using VAR model, In the analysis of Shanghai and Shenzhen AStock Markets’month data from2001to2010,We get conclusions in general、byindustry、by time. Crude oil price rise has a positive effect on stock market at thevery beginning, but when the oil price continues to rise, the market actually reversethe mechanism, yet the reverse mechanism is not so obvious. The effection of crudeoil price changes to the mining industry, the real estate industry is a growing trend inthe beginning, and continued to third month till the maximum positive impact, totenth month, the effection reduced to almost0.Oil price changes on the electronicsindustry, public utilities, machinery industry, construction industry stock marketindex in the beginning is a weakening trend, decreased to around0when there willbe one or two minor rebound. The price of crude oil changes on transportation andstorage industry effects in the initial stock market index decreased, and third monthsoon reached to a negative maximum value. The effection of crude oil changes onthe textile and garment industry stock market is not big, only when there is a positiveweak impact process in the third month and sixth month. We divide2001to2010into two equal parts. In the first5years, crude oil price fluctuations on the impact ofthe stock market is a negative effect, the subsequent impact effect weakened. In thesecond5years, the crude oil price fluctuations on the impact of the stock marketeffect in the first time is a positive impact, and this trend is strengthened until twelfthmonth reach a maximum value, then the effect is negative, in thirtieth month tonegative maximum value. So the crude oil price fluctuations on the impact of thestock market in2001-2005years, is a single negative effect, and in2006-2010years,crude oil price fluctuations on the impact of the stock market is to have a positive impact, then there will be a negative impact. Stock market information is barometerto the real economy, at the same time these information also has a reference value toinvestors, to facilitate the investors to make a judgment when the price of crude oilchanges. |
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