The Empirical Study Of RMB Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Degree And Import And Export Trade Of China

Under the conditions of modern open economy, the exchange rate continued imbalance will affect the internal balance and external balance of the economy of a country, and affect the sustained, stable and healthy growth of the economy of a country. Since July21,2005, China launched the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism of the RMB against the U.S. dollar showed unprecedented rally until the end of2012, has risen more than24%. Nevertheless, the appreciation of the RMB is expected to remain persistently high, especially with the development and spread of the financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate issue has become a hot issue of global concern, especially in the U.S. Congress, often accused China of using the RMB exchange rate "currency manipulation", causing the U.S. trade deficit to expand, resulting in the increase in U.S. unemployment, harm the economic interests of the United States. The United States accused the theoretical basis of China’s exchange rate policy is the real exchange rate of RMB has been seriously underestimated. So, whether the real exchange rate of RMB is substantially undervalued? How much extent of the RMB real exchange rate misalignment and the import and export of china? Become the key research topics in many national experts. This article is based on this background, focuses on the RMB real exchange rate misalignment the extent of China’s import and export trade relations, in order to provide some guiding significance for China’s exchange rate policy, and economic development policies.This article, based on research at home and abroad on the equilibrium exchange r ate, select the ERER improved model proposed by Montiel, and combined with the ac tual situation in China, build the RMB equilibrium real exchange rate model, and use the unit root test, cointegration analysis, H-P filtering techniques to estimate the RM B equilibrium real exchange rate and to study whether the RMB exchange rate is imb alance, in addition, for example of our primary products and manufactured goods, wer e established SVAR model. On this basis,use pulse effect and variance decomposition analysis, study the extent of the RMB real exchange rate misalignment and the impo rt and export of primary products and manufactured goods. Through empirical study, we found that the real exchange rate of RMB in the20th century significantly overest imated and significantly underestimated, but the21st century, the RMB real exchange rate misalignment by less than10%, the real effective exchange rate of RMB to start close to the equilibrium exchange rate. RMB real exchange rate misalignment degree of agricultural products, import and export volume of manufactured goods in china ha ve a certain negative impact on results, China should continue to actively pursue an i nitiative, controllability and gradual progress of the principle to adjustment of the RM B exchange rate, and gradually narrow the RMB real exchange rate misalignment exte nt to reduce the impact of the RMB real exchange rate misalignment of the extent of China’s import and export.