Research On Climatic Change Of Huaihe Basin In Recent Years And Its Projections In The Future

Huaihe river basin sits at the east side of China, in between two other major river regions. It covers across give provinces of China, they are Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong. There are mountain area and hilly area to the west and northeastern side of the Huaihe river and the rest of the land around it is widely spread the plain. This region locates in between the worm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone. The climate type here is semi-humidification monsoon climate with rich resource of light, water and heat. There are four seasons in a year and rain in hot season. Such weather is good for agriculture products to grow. This makes this area one of the most important agriculture bases of china.This article analyzed the observed climate element data of temperature, precipitation, and hours of sunshine from170meteorological stations between1961and2008. Using these data we studied the climate changing facts in Huaihe river basin for the past48years. During1961and2008the temperature in this area has increased significantly, the climatic trend rate reaches about0.21℃/10a. The east side has a higher rate of increasing temperature than the west side. Winter has the highest increasing rate followed by spring and autumn and summer has the lowest rate. The highest average temperature of a year does not change significantly. The lowest temperature has a climatic trend rate with0.35℃/10a, and the winter has a higher temperature increasing rate than spring and autumn. The precipitation within a single year doesn’t have significant variation but the variation between years is significant. After the21st century, the yearly precipitation increases continuously. The days of precipitation in a year have decreased slightly but the trend wasn’t significant. The yearly sunshine hours are decreasing. Summer has the largest decreasing rate followed by autumn and winter. The extreme temperatures of this area have been decreasing. There is no significant change in the extreme precipitation events of a year.Based on the simulation results from different global climate system model provided by the National Climate Center, we predicted the temperature, precipitation of the Huaihe river basin from2001to2050. The results showed that the annual average temperature of the Huaihe River Basin in the three scenarios B1, A1B, A2, will increase with different climatic trend rate of0.38℃/10a,0.28℃/10a and0.22℃/10a correspondingly. The total precipitation in the three scenarios is predicted to significantly increase and in A1B scenario increasing rate is the largest with the climate tendency rate reached10.8mm/10a. The future extreme precipitation events will have a reducing trend, especially the western and eastern side of the region, but the precipitation in the central region might be increased slightly.Overall, the average temperature in the Huaihe river basin has increased significantly from1961to2008, but the variation of the precipitation is not significant except the variation across years is increasing. Based on the global climate model data, the future temperature and precipitation in this area have an overall increasing trend.