The Analysis And Prediction Of The Four Major Grain Production Per Unit Area Yield In Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang province is a major grain production area in China, which has good food production conditions and steady grain supplements. Heilongjiang province provides a strong guarantee for our country’s food production. We can say Heilongjiang Province has made outstanding contributions to national grain safety and plays an unchanged part in guarantee system.Soybean, corn, wheat and rice are the main grain production of Heilongjiang province. The yearly output grain production of Heilongjiang province directly influences our national yearly total production. It is necessary to set up some mathematical models about the four main grain crops and to make some predictions for them.Based on introduction of grain production situation in Heilongjiang province, collected and collated the data about the food production in Heilongjiang Province,this paper has analyzed the four major grain food productions, namely soybean, corn, wheat and rice by setting up mathematics models and using time series method, gray model method and principal component analysis. It mainly includes the following aspects,(1) By collecting data of grain production in Heilongjiang province during1980-2012, the situation in Heilongjiang province was analyzed. It also sets up the comparative advantage model to analysis the grain production advantage of Heilongjiang province.(2) According to the theories of time series and gray system, the time series model and gray system model of four kinds of grains were built respectively. It also made the prediction of the yield per unit area of four main grains of Heilongjiang province.(3) Found the main influencing factor of grain production by building up the principal component analysis model. We could get some conclusions about how to increase production, mechanization degree, fertilizer usage, and popularization of science and technology, etc.(4) By integrating time series model and gray model, integration model was obtained. By using the integration model to predict the yield per unit area of four main grains in Heilongjiang province for2013-2017, finally we could get more accurate prediction results.