Analysis On Reliability Of Chang-Ji-Tu Logistics Systems Based On Method Of Markov Process

Seen as one of the most important districts that need to be developed, Chang-Ji-Tu development and opening-up pilot area show off sufficient availability to the cooperation of economic skills in northeast China and hence to further development toward northeast areas. Not only that, this area also resides in a location where mainly focuses on developing economy in the three provinces in the northeast China. With growing importance of reliability of the supply chain logistics system in development areas, logistics transportation turns to be a highly valued method in advancing economy. Nowadays, one thing receiving attentions among drastic competition is the supply chain. Comprised as complex system, it has been influenced by several uncertain factors. Thus, a sound method that stabilizes and promotes the function of supply chain is needed.This article begins with defining the supply chain, reliability, supply chain reliability. It also summarizes current developing situations of supply chains in the first part. Then, structural model of supply chain, reticulated supply chain, single-stage supply chain, multi-stage supply chain and its reliability also have been analyzed by the author with details. With considerations all mentioned above, based on multi-stage supply chain model of markov process, Chang-Ji-Tu supply chain logistics system model has been created which concentrates on four cities, Changchun, Jilin, Yanji, Hunchun. Given buffer stock of the logistics system and enterprises’ state of random arrival in that system, and also given the assumption that there is no change in parameters while enterprises’repairing time and working time before malfunction obey the index distribution, Chang-Ji-Tu supply chain logistics system model can be seen as a Markov process. With probability equations which can maintain steady condition of supply chain, the reliability of companies in supply chain logistics system and availability of Supply chain logistics system have been calculated. Additionally, with considerations of reliability of supply chain logistics system on the basis of inventory cost, the author provides optimized model.Finally, the writer briefly summarizes overall article, and implies further development of supply chain logistics system model.