The Study Of Climate Change In Xinjiang Tiznap River Basin And Its Effects On Runoff Tiznap River

Over the past century, the global climate is undergoing a warming as the maincharacteristics of the significant changes. With the in-depth research to climatechange, climate change under the influence of the hydrological response of graduallybecome one of research hot spots.This article choose the Tiznap River BasinYuzmenlik station1958～2010annual temperature, precipitation and runoff data,using some analysis methods to analysis. Conclusions are as follows:(1) Tiznap River Basin temperature showing a rising trend, rise of0.3℃/10a,The year temperature change showed a rising trend, the spring and the winterincrease obviously. Average annual temperature mutation point between the1998～2002, finally the test results obtained, in1998started by the cold warming mutation.Periodic change of basin temperature based on17a cycle.(2) Precipitation shows no obvious increasing trend, the growth rate was0.17mm/10a. At the beginning of21Century precipitation still has an increasingtrend, which in2005was the highest annual average precipitation,13.4mm, theaverage value of the high2.0mm ratio for many years. Precipitation in autumn,summer, winter season showed an increasing trend, the increase is relatively high insummer, spring precipitation showed a decreasing trend. Precipitation mainlyconcentrated in the may-june, in july-august-september precipitation is relativelymore, October-november-december-january-february are rainfall. In1993a is thebeginning of the mutation. Periodic analysis point of view, the main cycle is17a,time period of22a, the correlation coefficients are0.71and0.74.(3) Annual Runoff trend standing increase trend is obvious, the linear trend rateof0.39×108m3/10a，C vvalue is0.19.90’s runoff decreased.Summer is the largestproportion, accounting for68～75%.The maximum monthly runoff appears in July,the proportion of29.77%, minimum monthly runoff appears in February, theproportion of1.2%. Continuous a maximum of four months in june～september.Mutation analysis point occurred in1974and2001, and the runoff by mutationsincreased gradually. And17a is main cycle,10a and22a for the time period.(4) Tiznap River Basin response of the precipitation and temperature change torunoff is no significant correlation,but response of the precipitation change to runoffis very obvious than temperature. Spring, summer, autumn, with the increase ofprecipitation, runoff will increase with increasing the reduction, but the variation ofrunoff and precipitation in winter in some years has been inconsistent, as in1983,2002,2004. runoff in the correlation coefficient of the average temperature of themaximum in autumn,0.20,but no significant correlation between temperature andnot through any significant level.