Analysis And Forecasting For The Weather Of Continuous Rains In Jilin Province

Using total cloud cover and the daily rainfall data of forty-seven meteorological station from1964to2012in jilin province, the NCEP/NCAR data from America and the national climate center74circulation index data, this paper give a new definition method combined with the feature of days, precipitation, cloud cover sounds of jilin province. Compared with the old definition in1984, the new methed not only increase to5days, but refer the content of cloud cover, and with daily rainfall as reference rather than a reference to the same value for many years. This definition is more objective and direct, close to the current popular definition method. According to the new Method, the article show space-time distribution characteristics of continuous rain in jilin province, including the number of days and time of every month, season, year space distribution, from1964to2012in April to October jilin province and continuous rain process characteristics of interannual variability, including process days, process times, process station times, process daily rainfall, process single station precipitation. The essay analyzes continuous rain and SST correlation analysis, and analyzes differences between the typical more year and typical less year of500hPa circulation, and the difference weather conditions.The paper use74circulation index to long-term forecast, mainly around the days and year process precipitation and a year process station number give stepwise regression equations, and test forecast equations. Come to the conclusion that in the southeast of jilin province continuous rain is heart, and especially the summer and in July is the multiple times.The study reveals that the spring and from July to April the continuous rain have enhanced the increasing trend, through Analysis of the the maximum number of the year by year with the largest number of day and frequency. By discussing continuous rain variance distribution of years, season and month, the article points out that the volatility change situation of the days and the times.At the same time, the paper points out that the biggest variance may not appear in the center of the mean number of days and the times. On the whole, the times has a smaller fluctuations than the days, and so the times is relatively stable.In autumn days and times is the least and the most stable, but in summer the variance is biggest and most unstable. In addition the paper selected three examples, and by means of weather synoptic analysis, analyzes each process of the atmospheric circulation background, the main influencing system, the relationship between the precipitation and the circulation evolution characteristics, and the relation of the change of850hPa temperature field to the affected the system generated and disappear and to the large precipitation elimination.