Combination Model Of Energy Demand Forecast Based On Jiangxi Province

A country to stand a place in the world and ensure that its people’sstandard of living seek improvement in stability， energy is a priority. Anynational and regional economic development is inseparable from the supportof energy. In some extent， a country or a region’s energy production andconsumption situation can reflect the region’s level of economic development.In recent years， with the speeding up of informatization and urbanization andthe rapid development of economic in our country， China’s economicdependence on energy is more and more intense， gradually become a netimporter of energy. In such a case， the study of the influence factors ofenergy demand and make relatively accurate predicted， for the country orregion， formulate long-term energy development strategy and energy securityand economic sustainable development is of great significance.At present， jiangxi province is in the midst of the industry of theintermediate stage. International and domestic development shows that bothindustrialization and urbanization， the accelerated development stage，resource and environmental pressure is rising rapidly. In the coming decadesin jiangxi province faces the demand and supply energy decline，environmental constraints， such as the challenge. To science， energydemand and supply in jiangxi province accurately forecast， is conducive toeffectively develop in the coming decades in jiangxi province energydevelopment planning， promote the rapid， steady development of economyin jiangxi province， the construction of a harmonious， saving and efficientsociety， has an important theoretical and practical significance to realizeChina’s dream.In recent years， many scholars have studied the energy demand forecasting alot of forecasting methods. Often use the ARMA model method， BP neuralnetwork prediction， trend extrapolation method， gray system method，exponential smoothing method， the prediction method of moving averagemethod， etc. Between different prediction methods have their advantages anddisadvantages， they are not mutually exclusive， but connect with eachother， complement each other. This paper will， from jiang xi province’s ownenergy condition and energy supply and demand aspects of evaluation: first of all to understand present situation of energy consumption in jiang xiprovince， analyzed the relationship between energy and economic. Secondly，mathematical software to construct linear regression model， exponentialsmoothing model， grey model and BP neural network， forecast from1985to2010in jiang xi province energy consumption.