Study On Emergency Decision Making Of Major Projects Based On The Dynamic Differential Game Theory

The eruption and development of emergency event is uncertain and dynamic. Emergency-management is aimed at reducing the damage of emergency to achieve the optimization of decision-making in the process of replying emergency. This paper is based on the three complex dynamic processes of emergency management in the complex and dynamic environment in project which are early warning, emergency and dealing with the aftermath. The articlegoes deep into exploring the characteristics and nature of Competition and cooperationbetween Network organization entities in the process of risk management, dynamic analyzingthe system evolutionprocess caused by Competition and cooperationby establishing Dynamic differential game model,Comprehensive using dynamic game theory, optimizing control theory and Numerical calculation method.Firstly, the article made a relevant summary and elaboration to the current emergency management situation and model development at home and abroad. Further, combined with system dynamics analysis, it explained the game relationship between the subject and object in the process of emergency management. The basic framework of the main part of the article is the game theory. Combined with the relevant theory of emergency management, the article deeply researched and discussed the interaction between muIti-platform network organization entities in the process of project risk management. The main analysis is focused on the dynamic game between the project supervisors and decision makers. According to the characteristics of the two game competitors, they expect to make optimal-control on the risk of the system,while they seeking the maximum interests of their own, we establish different models. Starting from the aspect of competition, we respectively establish discrete game model and continuous dynamic differential game model, describing the dynamic game process between risk management in the process of the two main body of the qualitative and quantitative analysis. Using the MATLAB software, combined with numerical calculation method、 the optimization theory to solve the model, enhance we get the Nash equilibrium of the system, i.e. the optimal response strategy of the competitors.According to optimization results of the model we found in the above part, this paper made further sensitivity analysis of the model, to compare the affects of various parameters on the system, and thus improve the dynamic decision mechanism of emergencies in the management level, to provide the theory and method of the necessary support for the government to implement emergency management measures, in order to make effective and efficient decisions during the management of the engineering emergency. What’s more, we can achieve the subject of the comprehensive-integration and the optimal-management.