Time-series Analysis Of Air Pollution And Health Effect Of The Residents In Hangzhou

In order to quantitatively study the effect of air pollution on respiratory diseasehospitalization, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and daily mortality in Hang Zhou,by analyzing the concentration variation of the SO2、NO2、PM10in Hang Zhou from2010to2012, and establishing the relationship model between the residents’ healtheffects and the concentration of the air pollution.Collecting the daily concentration of the SO2、NO2、PM10and the dailytemperature from the January1,2010to the December31,2012in this paper. And thedaily respiratory disease hospitalization, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and dailymortality in Hang Zhou were also collected. To build the Poisson generalized additivemodel between the air pollution and the respiratory disease hospitalization,cardiovascular disease hospitalization and daily mortality. To exclude the effect of theconfounding factors, such as temperature, week effect with the smoothing spinefunctions. To study the hysteretic effect of the air pollution, selecting the independentvariable of the mode by AIC minimum principle. Getting the following results:(1) The daily concentration of the SO2、NO2、PM10were0.077mg/m3、0.083mg/m3、0.093mg/m3from the January1,2010to the December31,2012in Hang Zhou.And the concentration of SO2、PM10meet the national secondary air quality standards,but the concentration of NO2was more than the national air quality standards. Therewas a strong positive correlation among the various pollutants, and there was a strongnegative correlation between the temperature and the pollutants.(2) There was hysteretic effect between the air pollution and the daily respiratorydisease hospitalization, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and daily mortality. Thevarious pollutants had the various effects. The lagging days of the SO2、NO2、PM10onrespiratory disease hospitalization were3days、3days and4days; the one of SO2oncardiovascular disease hospitalization was2days, and NO2、PM10had immediacy; theones of SO2、NO2on daily death were both2days, while PM10on daily death was3days.(3) When there were a quarterback spacing concentration increase of SO2、NO2、PM10, that is, every pollutant will increase0.058mg/m3、0.024mg/m3、0.058mg/m3,the increasing proportion of daily respiratory disease hospitalization were2.7%(1.3%~5.9%)、1.7%(0.6%~3.5%)、0.6%(0.5%~1.4%); the ones of thecardiovascular disease hospitalization were1.4%(0.3%~2.5%)、2.5%(1.4%~3.7%)、 1.9%(0.6%~3.1%);and the ones of daily mortality were0.2%(0.1%~0.3%)、1.4%(0.7%~2.8%)、2.1%(1.1%~3.2%).So the air pollution of Hang Zhou remains to be improved, and the variouspollutants had the various effects on health. There was a trend of increase of the dailyrespiratory disease hospitalization, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and dailymortality with the increasing concentration of the pollutants.Thus we suggest the relevant government departments taking the following fouractions to improve the atmospheric environment: setting environmental protectionregulations; strengthening environmental supervision; increasing environmental capitalinvestment; enhancing the propaganda dynamics.