Maintenance Outage Time Model Of Distribution Network And Application In Reliability Evaluation

With the process of the social modernization accelerating, the production and lifedependence on electrical energy is increasingly, the loss to the national economiccaused by power outage is far more than the power system itself. For what caused theoutage of the power system, the yearly outage maintenance to transmission anddistribution equipment is its inevitable factors, and occupies a large proportion. In actualproduction, maintenance outage time is affected by many factors, how to reflect itsintrinsic relationship with the related factors, to build the maintenance outage timemodel in different conditions, has practical significance for distribution maintenanceand scheduling management. At the same time, combined with reliability evaluationmethod, to analyze its impact on distribution network reliability index, has guidingsignificance for optimizing the maintenance plan and improving power supplyreliability.In previous studies, through strengthening standardized management distributionnetwork maintenance to regulate power outage maintenance process, and avoid poweroutages uncontrolled caused by maintenance. But there is little study on the quantitativemethod of outage time and the influence of different operation on distribution networkreliability.Based on the actual data of distribution network maintenance though field surveyand operation tracking, this paper have made statistical and analysis to the commonmaintenance outage time. Proceed from the the link and stage dividing of maintenanceoperation and the influence factors of operation power outage time, trough introducingthe relevant influence factors to put forward a kind of power outage time simplifiedmodel which can be used in the maintenance managemen.In order to further deepen the understanding the regularity of maintenance poweroutage time, in this paper, the maintenance outage time of probability distribution havebeen studied, through testing the goodness of fit, have verified various maintenanceoutage time obey the lognormal distribution. This paper have put forward usingparameters regression analysis method to establish probability distribution model ofoutage time. Based on the idea of a logarithmic linear regression, the delay factor havebeen introduced to quantitative analysis various maintenance outage time. Throughparameter estimation and prediction effect test, the model can predict maintenance outage time well, and can satisfy the distribution network implementation indicators ofrisk management for power outage time prediction.This paper have analyzed the effect of different maintenance operation on thereliability of distribution network. Considering the random characteristic of poweroutage time, through making interval estimate to the various maintenance outage time,have established the form of maintenance outage time interval used in distributionnetwork reliability analysis, and given the power outage time calculation method fromsingle to multiple assignments in the same interval. Combining with the time-varyinginterval feature of distribution network load, this paper have put forward the methodthat through predicting ENS index to analyze the distribution network maintenancereliability, and provided scientific basis for quantitative maintenance outage influenceon reliability. Case part of this paper have used the presented method to analysemaintenance outage reliability index in a part of distribution network, compared withthe actual statistical result, have verified the study method in this paper accurate andpractical characteristics.