Studies On Lianyungang Short-term Power Load Forecasting System And Manual Adjustment Rules

Load forecasting is one of the important jobs of the power dispatch, electric power, electrical plan, electricity scheduling departments. The level of power load forecasting is an important symbol to measure the degree of development of modern power system. The improving level of power load forecasting is conducive to planning power management. And can improve the economic and social benefits of the power system. Load forecasting combined with computer technology is a scientific and effective method to improve the benefits of power system enterprise.This article focuses on the Lianyungang short-term power load forecasting system design, and discusses manual adjustment rules on load forecasting. Firstly, the concepts and status of load forecasting and the importance of studying load forecasting are introduced in this article. Also, load characteristics, the principle of the load forecasting, error analysis methods, new prediction models and Lianyungang load characteristics are studied in this article. Secondly, the structure of Lianyungang short-term load forecasting system is analyzed and the function of this system is designed. The cutting optimization model based on functional is used as the core prediction model. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the system are evaluated. Lastly, the manual adjustment rules are discussed. The influence to the prediction’s accuracy of weather factors, holiday factors and large user factors are analyzed. And then the necessity and feasibility of manual adjustment rules based on the instances and forecast results are demonstrated.With the design of load forecasting system and analysis of the instances on manual adjustment rules, a conclusion is gotten. It illustrates that prediction algorithm combined with manual adjustment rules can improve the accuracy of load forecasting greatly and it has great significance to load forecasting.