Research On Water Quantity And Quality Management Model Of River Basin Under Uncertainty

In recent years, due to speedy socio-economic development, water scarcity and pollution challenges have been increasingly prominent, which hinder the sustainable development in turn. Thus, effective planning for water resources and environment is essential for easing the water crisis. However, such a planning effort is always associated with multiple uncertain factors, e.g. social, economic, environmental, technical and political, which challenge the capacities of traditional deterministic methods. Therefore, the aim of this study is to advance inexact optimization approaches to handle such uncertainties in water resources and environmental systems for supporting rational local decision-making. Firstly, based on in-deep analysis of prominent problems and existing uncertainties, an inexact minimax relative-regret analysis (IMRA) method is developed, and then applied to a real case of agricultural water management in Zhangweinan River Basin. Secondly, according to severe water quality problems of Xiangxihe River in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, an inexact chance-constrained waste-load allocation (ICWA) model is proposed for supporting water pollution control under uncertainty, considering point and non-point sources emissions and the effect of impoundment. The results demonstrate that the IMRA method could deal with uncertainties expressed as intervals and random variables with less probabilistic distributions information, and generate optimal water allocation schemes under demanding and advantageous conditions. In addition, the ICWA model could provide the results for industrial production scale, water supply and agricultural activities under different probability levels, and gain an insight into the tradeoffs between system benefit and system-failure risk. In a word, IMRA and ICWA models are valuable for the local decision-makers to formulate desired decision alternatives for integrated river basin management under uncertainty, and provide new ideas for facilitating the realization of coordinated social, economic and environmental development.