A Research On The Socio-technical System Innovation Of Electric Vehicles In Hangzhou Based On Svstem Dvnamics Simulation

Facing the problems of energy shortage and environment pollution, battery electric vehicle is realized as the main means of transportation in the near future, replacing the internal combustion engine vehicles. Meanwhile, China hopes to achieve the success of vehicle technology by developing the EV (Electric Vehicles). But after over a half century’s support to EV industry, the result seems not so good. A lot of academics simply attribute the reason to the immature technology, high cost of battery or high price of vehicles. But EV is a unique product, which has a strong network effect. It involves the realization of the whole social transportation function. This paper discusses the diffusion of EV in a systematic view.Considering that the25EV demonstration cities in China has few achievements, this paper analyzes the example of Hangzhou for these questions:What is the composition of EV diffusion system? Does the consumer in the system has preference or attention for EV’s attributions? Do the existing policies have a positive effect for the diffusion of EV?We figure out different question with different research methods. For first two questions, we adopt the methods of semi-structure interview and questionaire survey. And we use the system dynamics model to simulate the third question, based on the empirical analysis.We come to a few conclusions after these research methods.First, the diffusion of EV is a process of socio-technical innovation, which involves technology, rules, actor practice, market, government policy and so on. Successful diffusion of EV needs all elements’ cooperation.Second, the most important factor that matters when consumers buy a EV is the charging time, and then is the endurance distance and operation price. The purchasing price of EV is not so important as academics thought.Third, the policies of subsidy for vehicle purchasing, battery changing pattern and EV leasing, which is implemented by Hangzhou government, will have a strong combined effect for the diffusion of EV in the long run. Among those policies, the most important is the battery changing pattern.