| Hydrological forecasting and hydroelectric station (s) scheduling is the core of development and utilization of water resources, timely and reliable hydrological forecasts can provide information to flood control and drought, runoff regulation, meanwhile, is the basis for taking all kinds of hydraulic engineering measures and scheduling decisions; hydropower reservoir operation is directly related to the optimal allocation of resources.Firstly, based on the forecasting technique of periodic analysis and GM(1,1) model, this paper, through analyzing the characteristics of hydrological time series, applys the gray-periodic extensional combinatorial model to the mid-long term hydrological forecasting, and improves the original model for the prediction residual by using the autoregressive technology AR(p). The result shows that the improved model can make fuller use of the data information and raises the prediction precision.Secondly, through researching and analyzing the progress of reservior initial impoundment, this paper points out the shortage of conventional water storage methods, and builds an optimal initial impoundment model based on prediction, in the view of shortening duration and reducing effects of downstream station. On the premise of meeting the principles and requrements of storing water, this model improves the water power utilization rate and optimizes the process of initial impoundment by controlling the water level upstream and downstream of reservoirs reasonably.Finally, according to the actual situation of the Jinsha river cascade hydropower stations, this paper analyzes the issue that it is easy to waste water resources before putting the first reservior into use and at the same time the downstream reservior with smaller preformance regulates the greater runoff, for which the united forecasting pre-discharging model is built. This paper also discribes the principles and scheduling methods of this model detailedly, and cmpares it with the singile running application. The result shows that this united scheduling method can significantly reduce disposable water, increase generating capacity and improve the overall effectiveness of cascade hydropower stations. |
