The Analysis Of Influencing Factors For Crash Severity And The Establishment Of Predication Model

With the rapid development of China’s economy, traffic crash have also madeconsiderable progress, at the same time, traffic crash are more serious and threat the livesand property of our people. In2013, cars increased16.51million, drivers increased1790million, and the road congestion problems caused by rapid growth of traffic lineseverywhere.2012, China’s happened204,196road traffic crash, the total death tollreached59,997people, the total number of injured reached224,327people, as well asdirect property loss of1.17billion. Over the years of vigorous law enforcement efforts toenhance road safety and road conditions continue to improve, so that China’s total deathtoll of road traffic accidents show a downward trend, but the death toll of road crash is farmore than many developed countries. Start at the United Nations Decade of Action onRoad Traffic Safety Plan, the country is listed as the number one country in the world andthe largest number of deaths in road accidents.Although the country’s road safety issues caused the continuous concern of thecommunity, the road traffic safety management is not enough, traffic safety educationstarted late, and the lack of transportation facilities, all these make serious traffic crashremains high and many casualties on traffic crash resulting in death have not beeneffectively addressed major risks. Previous studies of road traffic crash are mostlyfocused on how to reduce or avoid, so very few injuries traffic crash related to the trafficanalysis, but the casualties of road accidents can explore more rational analysis of theseverity of road traffic accidents. For road traffic accidents, the terms of how to avoidserious road traffic crash and how to reduce crash in the number of death casualties arealso an important part of road traffic safety research. Therefore, in the above context, thispaper use the road traffic crash factors as the research of the severity of the impact ofcrash, try to use the fault tree method of thinking and cumulative Logistic theoreticalmodels for analysis, and propose appropriate safeguards road safety countermeasuresagainst the main factors.The research on the severity of road traffic crash relying on the crash data thatcollected by the Ministry of Transportation, mainly includes the following aspects. Firstly,through the10,000road traffic crash statistics, from the macro level to select the main Influencing factors, the paper divided the factors into multi-vehicle accidents and roadcycling accident two levels, and established the fault tree to determine the main factorsthrough qualitative analysis of road traffic crash. Secondly, use the qualitative analysisresults of fault tree as the basis to establish the severity of the accident prediction modelbased on the cumulative Logistic regression models on the road, the model introduced bydividing the variable direct property loss of economic factors, the severity of the accidentwill be divided into three levels, the model select the15main factors as independentvariables analyzed the main Influencing factors associated with each level of roadaccidents in the modeling process. Thirdly, the paper established the predictive model ofthe severity of traffic crash based on the cumulative Logistic regression, make theproportional and goodness of fit test to the model, the result Verify the feasibility of themodel. Finally, the paper analysis the main affect factors of the severity of road trafficcrash, and propose safeguards road safety. The model support safety evaluation andtechnical help for the road safety.