Simulation Research On The Evolution Of The Double Cropping Rice Region In China Based On The Crop Development Model

The double cropping rice production in South China rice growing regions is of great significance to protect China’s food security. Under the background of global climate change, explore the changes of China double cropping rice suitable region and its northern limit has guiding significance in the coming decades agricultural planning.In this paper, the study of rice growth dynamic mode by means of computer simulation, combined with the rice development of model simulation of future late rice growth process and the future of rice material phenology of response to climate change, according to rice suitability index, by calculating the rice suitable rate change to reflect the impact of climate change on double cropping rice planting area and its northern limit in China.Establish a rice growth dynamic mode comprehensively considered the genetic and environmental factors. The latter factors include temperature and light. The RCSODS model is based on the inheritance and the Logistic curve is used to fitting rice photoperiod effect for innovating.Determine the parameters of the model through the optimization method based on60samples.Whether suffer the cold damage (cold dew wind) in late rice flowering stage is considered as a suitable standard for the double cropping rice, and the double cropping rice suitability index was propose.Calculate Suitable rate of1951-1970,1971-1990,1991-2010,2011-2030and2031-2050phases of double cropping rice distribution, and draw the planting suitable rate dynamic maps by ArcMap.The variation of double cropping rice suitable rate past60years showed that the overall suitable rate of double-crop appropriate zonal distribution, gradually increasing from north to south, the northern limit of double cropping rice cultivation has gradually northward trend, roughly0.5-1.2northward latitude. The double cropping rice planting areas and suitable areas in southern China region have expanded eastward tendency in the future. The northern boundary of double cropping rice approximately northward0.5-1.6latitude in the next40years.