Construction And Evaluation Of The Prediction Model For Florescence Of Tree Peony In Luoyang City Henan Province

Luoyang is the proterozoic, birthplace and spread region of Peony. Since1983Peony Fairs successfully held have become the image of economic development, investmentand tourism brand. However, the climate changes such as urban heat island effect havegreatly influenced the Tree Peony blooming, the date of Fairs are difficult to meet with natureblooming, which has impacted attracting investments and income of tourism.For the sake of solving the problems better, the test studies on the effects of peonyflorescence temperature, effective accumulated temperature, illumination, humidity andtemperature of different soil layers from1983to2010, analyzing the differences among citygrowing area, north growing area and south growing areas Through the selectedmeteorological factors, a prediction model is made by SAS system. The max mistake betweenforecast and factual is two days. The model could exactly forecast the florescence, whichprovides a reliable reference to predicting florescence of the Tree Peony. Meanwhile it seeksthe relationship between endogenous hormone and the environmental factors, and establishes acorrelation, which provides a good theoretical direction.