The Parameter Estimation Method Of Generalized Weng Cycle Model (Weng Cycle Model) And Its Applications In Medicine

Objective: Weng Cycle Model and its extension generalized WengCycle Model is builded by Mr. Weng Wenbo, a late famous geophysicistand he is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Themodel is the first model to predict oil and gas production and recoverablereserves, so it is widely paid attention to and applied by many petroleumexperts. In order to improve the fitting and forecasting precision of theWeng Cycle Model and the generalized Weng Cycle Model, many scholarshave done a lot of research of parameter estimation method in Weng CycleModel, and explore a lot of parameter estimation method to solving WengCycle Model. This paper will present a parameters estimation method tosolve the generalized Weng Cycle Model which based on the approximateregression of the nonlinear regression methods to improve the fittingprecision and prediction precision of generalized Weng Cycle Model. Andthen explore the generalized Weng Cycle Model in the prediction ofepidemic disease, and its applications in establish the pharmacokineticsmodel. Method: By the parameters which resulted by the approximateregression method to slove the generalized Weng Cycle Model that based onnonlinear model, and derive generalized Weng Cycle Model parameterformula. Using the Web, Chinese macro data mining system, and the localCDC to gather these numbers of the incidence epidemiological data, thenfollowing the gathered number of establish Weng Cycle Model. At last, theWeng Cycle Model is able to use for the predict of the epidemic diseasesfuture trends.Result: This model in this paper is used to forecast the infectiousdiseases epidemic trends, such as AIDS,syphilis, epidemic hemorrhagicfever and Children’s Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease, we are also find thatthe Weng Cycle Model make a better prediction in these infectious diseasesthan others, it also shows that this model in this paper can be used to forecastthe infectious diseases trends.Conclusion: The Weng Cycle Model is established by the parameterswhich resulted by the approximate regression method to slove thegeneralized Weng Cycle Model that based on nonlinear model,which cangreatly improve the fitting and prediction accuracy, and it has the advantageof calculate easily, the model is able to give a better way to predict theincidence of epidemic diseases trends.