The AIDS Studies Based On GIS And Cellular Automaton

Cellular Automata is an important tool in complex system research, it can simulate complex phenomena, the study on epidemic spread can provide useful suggestion for epidemic prevention; Geographic Information System has a powerful spatial analysis module, we can analyze and study the spatial distribution characteristics of epidemic based on the distribution of spatial data, so we can find kinds of factors which may influence the spread of epidemic. Cellular Automata model is a simple but efficient dynamic system, it has a certain space concept, Geographic Information System has powerful spatial data analysis function, so it’s often used in dealing with static data but is lack of time and space dynamic analysis function. Combining with the Cellular Automata model and data analysis functions of Geographical Information System, we can overcome the shortage of the authenticity of Cellular Automata, and get more real simulation effect, it provides a new way for the research of the spread of epidemic, and also has a certain practical significance.Considering the integration of MapXandCA, we build a new system about the spread of epidemic based on epidemiological data. It mainly includes two parts, one part is the epidemic spread model based on cellular automata, which is the core part of the system, various parameters which can influence the spread of epidemics was defined in it, such as:cellular state, the strength of infectious, th,e resistance, infection probability and so on. Combining with the specific spatial data we also can constantly improve each parameter value and definition methods, optimize the propagation model of cellular automata and status with the new rules. Another part is the graphical part of the system, through the data binding operation on MapX, we can get the thematic map on the basis of the single attribute and multiple attribute, at the same time the initial data and the simulation results data from the propagation model of cellular automata can be graphical displayed on the map platform, and then we can further study the spread characteristic of the epidemic. Finally according to the theory and method introduced above, using the AIDS data in Wuhan city for recent11years, we simulated experiments, including data preprocesing, the spatial analysis and two kinds of simulation with different initial states.Comparing the simulated data and real data, we find the study on epidemic spread based on cellular automata and geographic information systems is possible. Main innovation of this paper:(1) Expand transmission model of cellular automata, we considered the actual data and made the model more real, refer to the actual location information of a specific object, such as:residential address,local latitude and longitude coordinates and so on, calculated the actual distance between two points, optimized the definition of geographical neighbors and the transformation rule.(2) Trough the analysis function of geographic data, we provided a new way to display the cellular automata, we can make the thematic map based on state property, and get the graph of the cellular model clearly.