Soil Erosion Quantitative Evaluation Of Dynamic Prediction Jinan City River Basin

In this paper, various factors and their relationships affecting soil erosion has been discussed to study of the process of soil erosion. Different soil erosion factors which form an system interact and constraint with each other. From the view of theory scientific, this is an open system in which energy exchange is promoted and material flow quickly. The change of the system which is resulted by the factors change can lead to the soil erosion change.During the process of the research, GIS and RS technology is used as the basic tools. Sanchuan watershed soil erosion in Jinan City has been calculated by using the Chine se soil loss of equation (CSLE). The effect of different factors to soil erosion of the reseach area includes topographical factors, biological factors measures, engineering andtillage practices factor.Then, three soil erosion maps is produced:the1990,2000and2010. By analyzing soil erosion intensity distribution and evolution and using CA-MARCOV-based model, the dynamic characteristics of soil erosion in the area has been studied and changes of soil erosion in the next10years has been predicted which can provide scientific and technological support the ecological environment construction and sustainable in the area. The main parts are as followings:(1) through the collation of remote sensing data and other attribute data, combined with field survey data, five important quantitative indicators which are suitable for the evaluation of three river basin soil erosion in Jinan City, including terrain slope, land use, vegetation coverrainfall erosivity and soil erodibility. By the Interpretation of the1990,2000and2010Landsat remote sensing, three land use maps are generated. By using GIS technology, TM, DEM, soil maps and rainfall data are used to extract terrain slope, rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility factor, in order to establish the space attribute database which can be used to evaluate and predict the soil erosion in the research area.(2)Introducing the database above, using CSLE model, the amount of soil erosion is obtain in the1990,2000and2010three years,and the spatial distribution of soil erosion intensity is generated,at last,the result’s accurate is tested by a system model. In the paper,the relationship between soil erosion intensity and it’s each factor are analysed.(3) Soil erosion evaluation results between two series data in the study area are used as the base of dynamic analysis. The space-time evolution analysis is done by dynamic analysis methods. The spatial distribution of the dynamic evolution of soil erosion in the study area is studied through time series and spatial distribution. Through spatial overlay analysis, soil erosion is studied by different factors under natural environmental background, to seek the intrinsic link.(4) Based on the CA-MARCOV model, the2010year soil erosion amount is calculated by the1990and2000years data.2010data calculated by the2010soil erosion data to calibrate the model validation, using the model to predict the amount of soil erosion in2020. Finally, different environmental factors affect the dynamic changes of the study area of soil erosion has been analysed. The two main factors-land use and vegetation cover-affect the soil erosion dynamic change also have been anaylsed.