Monte Carlo Simulation Of Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Studies Change

Objective Through the application of Monte Carlo simulation, monitoring Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) changes of Klebsiella pneumoniae of several antimicrobial agents which commonly used in clinical, evaluating the validity of the trend as an initialization of anti-infective therapy of hospital-acquired pneumonia caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae, and further comparing their potential level of induction of bacterial resistance and thus help making a reasonable choice of initializing antimicrobial treatment programs in clinical work,to reduce the incidence of bacterial resistance.Methods In this study, piperacillin-tazobactam, cefoperazone-sulbactam, Latamoxef sodium and ceftazidime four kinds of commonly used anti-Gram-negative bacilli infections drugs were chosen as initial empiric therapy. Collected data of patients with hospital-acquired pneumoniae in the Qingdao Central Hospital in the period of2011.07to2012.07, and the period of2012.08to2013.08, then screened out of which ESBLs (-) Klebsiella pneumoniae data and calculating the effective rate of piperacillin-tazobactam. Then using Crystal Ball software for Monte Carlo calculation of two-stage CFR of the above five kinds(?) commonly used programs, and comparing their results.Results (1) The clinical effective rate of piperacillin-tazobactam is slightly lower than the result of Monte Carlo simulation.(2)Compared the CFR of two stages and found that of ceftazidime significantly decreased compared with the previous CFR, others had small differences.Conclusions:Monte Carlo simulation calculates the probability of drug regimens to achieve pharmacodynamic targets.With the CFR as a standard, empiric treatment programs can be selected more visually,and change of bacterial resistance can be monitored effectively.