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Research On Evaluation Method Of Urban Crisis Emergency Management Based On Wargaming

Posted on:2015-03-04Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2266330431457117Subject:Control Science and Engineering
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With the accelerating of urbanization process in China, city has become the center of populations and economic in recent year. The emergencies caused by natural disasters and man-made factors pose a threat for the lives of people and social economic, which is a huge challenge for management of urban emergency personnel. The Wargaming System of Urban Crisis Emergency Management provides a decisions drill platform for emergency personal. However, lack of corresponding emergency management evaluation system makes it difficult to judge the effect of decision-making exercises. Because of the difference between decision-making exercises in wargaming system and traditional emergency drills, copying traditional evaluation methods will be unreasonable. And the traditional evaluation methods are susceptible to subjective experience or highly demand for sample, they must be modified to apply to wargaming system of emergency management.On the basis of improving the traditional evaluation methods, this paper studies an evaluation method that applied for wargaming system. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is the most common method in evaluation system, but it does not consider the fuzziness of judgment so it likely to cause deviation of evaluation results. Therefore, this paper introduces the Triangular Fuzzy Number (TFN) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) to AHP, and provides the management evaluation model of TFN-AHP-FCE, then improves this evaluation model combine with the characteristics of wargaming system.Firstly, the concept of wargaming and the urban crisis emergency management system based on wargaming are introduced to lay the foundation for designing the evaluation methods. Then this paper compares several of common evaluation methods, and chooses AHP to design index system, and introduces TFN to AHP to solve the fuzziness of judgment and avoid consistency test of judgment matrix. In order to make the weights more reliable and convincing, this paper combines the reciprocal judgment matrix with complementary judgment matrix to determine weights. In the process of experts rating, the fuzzy membership in FCE is used to solve the alternative problem of score, and summarizes the score of fuzzy evaluation matrix to avoid that the principle of the largest membership does not apply in circumstances. Afterwards, this paper provides the improving method of the evaluation in wargame system based on the characteristics of wargaming system of emergency management, that is turn-based, according to battlefield reports, and seeking the relation between orders of units and indexes. Then this paper designs the automatic evaluation method for several typical indexes to assist the experts’ evaluation.In order to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation method studied by this paper, the accidents of Sinopec Qingdao oil spill was simulated. This paper converts the measures of emergency departments before explosion into orders of units in wargaming system, and shows the results in the form of battlefield reports. Then the evaluation method of this paper is used to evaluate the ability of emergency management of each unit. The evaluation method studied by this paper is proved to be effective for wargaming system of urban crisis emergency management by comparing the evaluation results with the actual situation.
Keywords/Search Tags:Emergency Management, Wargaming, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFN), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE)
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