The Study On Relationship Between Economical Development And Traffic Accidents Of China

With sustained economic developments of China, the death toll of traffic accidents is also increasing, which caused so much concern. The general rule on the relationship between traffic accidents and economic developments is the Smeed’s law—traffic. fatalities and economic developments show inverted U curve relationship—namely with the economic development, traffic accident mortality increases at first, then it begin to decline.Firstly, this thesis does a descriptive statistical analysis of the status of China’s economic development and traffic accident. Next, test the Smeed’s law using the national data from1990to2012and get Chinese factors. Then this paper make time series regression model and fixed-effects panel data model based on the national time series data and inter-provincial panel data using statistical data from1996to2012. Due to the instability of data, unit root test and cointegration analysis are done before the models are set. Besides, by adding a few effects of traffic fatalities in the model as other control variables, such as medical standards, the level of urbanization an incorruption, we find that there is a significant positive correlation between urbanization and traffic fatalities, namely with the development of urbanization in China, more and more people die in traffic accidents, which is in line with the previous judgment, and the correlation of other variables are not so significant.