Study On The Zhejiang Textile Industry Prosperity Evaluation And Early Warning Systerm

Since ancient times Zhejiang has the name "the house of silk". After the founding of New China,especially since the reform and opening up, Zhejiang textile industry has been rapid developed, become the pillar industry in zhejiang province and international competitve advantage more obviously industry.But recently, because of the accession to the WTO as well as the financial crisis, appreciation of the renminbi and other factors, Zhejiang textile industry has been seriously threatened,facing a severe text. In order to make the textile industry in the fierce competition market seek survival and development, to establish a set of practical textile industry prosperity system and early warning system is imminent.Therefore, this article on the basis of the domestic and international economic evaluation theory and early warning theory, use these economic evaluation and early-warning theory in textile industry. According to the prosperity index and early-warning system theory and method,construct the Zhejiang province textile industry prosperity index system and model of early warning system, attempts to describe Zhejiang province textile industry status from the theory and the practice,to strengthen the macro management of textile industry, realize macroscopical adjusting control provides a theoretical basis. At the same time,we studies the influences of related industries on the industrial chain for textile prosperity degree.Firstly, this paper introduced some achievements about domestic and international economic issues and early warning systems,and some introduction of relevant theories about economic evaluation and early warning system.Secondly, on the basis of some industry economy evaluation model,this article construct Zhejiang province textile industry prosperity evaluation system, and made the following improvements:One, in the selection of prosperity index, some of the current research only select the objective economic indicators. In this paper, by the construction of the textile industry in Zhejiang province economic evaluation system includes not only the objective economic indicators, but also the subjective index, reflecting the industry development trend of industry and the subjective judgment.Two, on the process of ubjective data, use the form of interval numbers insetad of the simple scoring method, to better reflect the subjective index non precise characteristics. At the same time, the index change degree have a more accurate description.Thirdly, based on the textile prosperity index system, builds the early-waring model of zhejiang province textile industry based on waring light calculates the index of textile early waring so that we can observe the situation of textile economy.And we predict the early waring indexs in2011february using the Grey Systems GM(1,1) method.Fourthly, according to the existing statistical data, to empirical analysis Zhejiang province textile industry prosperity system and early warning system, undertake a comprehensive judgment on the Zhejiang province textile industry economy, verify the feasibility of the system..The result of empirical analysis in kept with the actual situation of Zhejiang province textile industry basically, indicate the study established the prosperity system and early warning system reliability, and has a certain practical value.Finally, the industry is not isolated existence in the society, the economic situation will be influenced by the industry chain on the of relevant industry, therefore, we studies the influences of related industries on the industrial chain for textile prosperity degree, the result shows that,the textile prosperity degree would be influenced not only by current related industries prosperity degree,but also antecedent degree. meantime, the textile prosperity degree would also impact on the related industries.