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Forecasting The Urban Saturated Load Based On The Analysis Of Land-use Change

Posted on:2013-03-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H Y HeFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330374464814Subject:Technical Economics and Management
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As an important index of long-term electric power planning, the saturated load is importance for guiding future development levels of urban load and power grid. In this paper, at first, through analyzing the development situation of economy and load in the foreign countries, the relationship between load growth and economic development is obtained. Then based on the system dynamics (SD) theory, a comprehensive forecasting model is established here to analyze the saturated urban economy. And the criterion used to judge whether a city’s economy is saturated is also presented. In addition, as one of the significant factors in the process of economic development, land-use change is fully analyzed through the cellular automata (CA) theory and GIS technology; and a risk forecasting model of land-use change is established. The analysis results are applied in the example of the forecasting model of urban saturated economy. After taking Xiamen city as an example, the final results shows that its economy will be basically saturated after2035in the medium scheme; and in the high and low schemes, its economy will be basically saturated after2030and2040, respectively. Then, combining the system dynamics theory with the load development situation of foreign cities, and based on the load density method and the electricity consumption per capita method, a forecasting model of urban saturated load is established. Taking Xiamen city as an example, the empirical analysis results show that this model is practical. At last, the conclusions and prospects are provided.
Keywords/Search Tags:system dynamics, cellular automata, land function, saturated economy, saturated load
PDF Full Text Request
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