Research On Real Options And The Game Theory In The Investment Decisions Of The Construction Project

With the growth of the economic in China, the construction are gradually entering the golden age of development, but the method of investment decision-making was too simple, the effect of the competition the and the uncertainty of future on the investment value has not taken into account, and can’t adapt the various and complicated characteristics of the investment, it is necessary to develop the new models for scientific investment decision-making.Firstly, the paper analyzed the type of real options in the construction project, and based on the situation of construction industry in China build the whole life cycle real options investment decision-making model, which divided the whole process of the project into two parts, first discussed the defer option and the abandon option, second discussed the expand option, the contract option and the abandon option, and calculated the value from the uncertainty by the binary tree model.Secondly, the paper researched the value of the defer option, the expand option and the contract option of the double oligarchies, when the market was uncertain and relationship between the oligarchies was the fairly competitors, leader-follower, and the mutually beneficial cooperator, building the option game investment decision-making modelFinally, the paper designed the construction project investment decision support system, including the market forecasting module, the investment forecasting module and the investment decision-making module. Which also build the investment decision-making processes, including the traditional model, the real option model and the option game model.The research of this thesis provides a foundation for the investment decision-making, and will make a positive role in guiding, regulating and enhancing the whole level of construction project management.