Study Of Monthly Energy Procurement Decision In East China Electricity Market

With the development of Chinese reform and world economy, it’snecessary for Chinese power industry to join the globalization of worldeconomy. As one of the earliest regional electricity markets, energytrades in the market of East China are becoming more and more. And theresearch of trading pattern has become more and more significant. It’smeaningful and worthy to do procurement decision research according tonational conditions and the electricity market of East China.Risk based monthly energy procurement decision problem of electricpower companies is studied in this article. A double layered optimaldecision model based on the different features of bilateral and poolmarket trades is built. A decision model to allocate the proportion ofenergy to procure through bilateral and pool market trades using PortfolioTheory is proposed to explicit the market type and purchasing tendency.The optimal decision model based on return and varience takes return andrisk into account and solves the allocation problem of two kinds of trades.Then the decision model to distribute the proportion of energy toprocure through bilateral contracts with different provinces in buyers’market is made with Market Index Method. In the model, reliability, sellers’ default and peak-to-valley ratio are considered simultaneously.Through examples with different selling space conditions, it is provedthat the method can solve multi-seller monthly energy procurementdecision problem in buyers’ market.In sellers’ market, the decision model is proposed with Decision TreeMethod. Through the sequencing of the factors of economy, reliability,energy saving policies and satisfaction of other entities, etc. and pros andcons analysis of each scheme, a logical decision procedure is made.Examples proves that both single level decision problems and multi leveldecision problems can be solved by decision trees, in which the frontfactors are more important than the latter factors. Price difference amongthe trading schemes will also influence the results.At the end, risk factors such as season, weather, economic situation,relations between supply and demand and the operational status of powergrids are time-varying, so a monthly energy procurement decision modelis made due to which the quantity and price are rollingly modified. Whenemergencies influence demands, no matter in buyers’ market or sellers’market, bilateral trades are preferred. But the proportion changes less inbuyers’ market, for the supply and demand is loose.