Research On The Fluctuation Of China’s Stock Market Based On Search Keywords Attention Index

With the increasing demand driven by Chinese economic rapid development,China’s stock market developed rapidly and played an important role in the capitalmarket. It has a increasing important influence on the national economy. However,researches about the stock market faces two major problems because of the marketsystem ’s complexity. One is the history data ’s time-lag and volatility ’s irregularityduring the stock price ’s fluctuation research, the other is the nondeterminacy whenthe influencing factors like interest or economic policy rates affect the stock market,and this phenomenon is particularly significant in developing countries. Somescholars tried to improve the predictive accuracy of the stock market by addingsome real-time data like news. According to the economic theory that consumerdemand is the most important factor of the price fluctuations, other viewpoint is beproposed that reseach about the price fluctuations could be improved by analyzinginvestors demand decision behavior trend. With the development of informationnetwork technology, the search engine is becoming one of the most popular wayduring of information querying, and the psychological and behavioral trendsimplicated in Internet users ’ information query behavior based on the search engineare causing more attention. The launch of Google Insight and some other searchkeywords attention index applications offer researchers an efficient and effectiveway to mine the decision behavior information by analyzing the related searchkeywords attentio index.With the commencement of the Chinese split share structure reform began in2005, the effect of demand fluctuations on the stock index ’s influctuation is moreimportant. Considering the need of stock market research and he environmentalbackground of search engine, this paper is started from the perspective of predictingthe price fluctuation of stock market by mining user demand decision-makingbehavior trends. Firstly, the relationship between information query behavior anduser demand is analyzed, and the stock market related search information modelbased on search engine query behavioris built according to stock market theory andsearch behavior ’s characteristics. The structural relationship of the search for stockindex of stock market related information and stock index will be analyzed andverified by Structural Equation Model. The long-run equilibrium and short-termfluctuations of the stock index is analyzed using cointegration analysis and error correction model. The research result shows that, the stock market related searchkeywords attention index has strong presentation ability on the long-run equilibriumof stock market, and it can effectively predict the short-term fluctuations of closingprice.This study can open a new research perspective of the query behavior andstock trading behavior. It can verify the expression ability of Internet users’ netinformation searching behavior on the real market. It can offer some suggestion forstock investors, listed companies and the relevant administrative departments.