| Since the housing reform in1998, Chinese real estate market has been flourishing and the commercial housing price has been kept increasing in the recent ten years. The leading role of real estate market to the entire economy is getting more and more obviously. The upstream industries such as steel, cement, building etc., and the down-stream industries like service or financial etc., have been increasingly dependent on the real estate, which makes it the pillar industries in national economy. The importance in people’s livelihood and economy has made real estate market playing a more and more important role in Monetary Policy transmission process. Meanwhile, due to Chinese district economic imbalance and the obvious difference in economic factors, such as resource endowment, economic development level, financial integration level, mobility of capital, etc. by region, there exists big difference from the effect on monetary policy transmission through real estate price in different regions.According to the division of eight economic regions in China from the State Council’s Outline of the Eleventh Five-year Plan, this essay establishes VAR model, which conducts an empirical analysis on regional differentiation of the effect on monetary policy transmission through real estate price in eight economic regions, and compares the differentiation degree of monetary policy transmission in different regions in details through Impulse Response Functions.The result shows that, money supply’s impact on real estate price of all economic regions is greater than on interest rates. Money supply’s impact supply’s impact is positive. The rise in RMB benchmark interest rates restricts the price of real estate in the areas with a higher economic development, but in the less development areas it further pushes up the price. The impact of real estate price in all economic regions on social gross investment is negative, but is positive on social total consumption in the majority. At the same time, because there exists a great difference in real estate price sensitivity to changes of money supply and RMB benchmark interest rates in all economic regions, the single monetary policy doesn’t bring any good effect.According to the above conclusion, this essay makes the following proposals:First, on the basis of the single monetary policy, put emphasis upon the monetary policy differentiation. Second, promote inter-regional coordinated development, narrow the nap in development among region, and promote to form the Optimum Currency Area. Last, improve real estate market and make full use of its function on promoting monetary policy transmission. Hope these analysis and suggestions will provide certain practical basis in differential monetary policy making in China, thus further complete the monetary policy theory system, improve monetary policy effectiveness, and establish optimized, scientific, and effective System of Macro-economic Adjustment. |
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