Research On The Interactive Relationship Between RMB Foreign Exchange Markets In Hong Kong And Mainland

In June19,2010, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform restarted.The new currency reform is basically the continuation of the RMB exchange rateformation mechanism in2005July to2008June, according to market regulation withreference to a basket of currencies based, managed floating exchange rate system. Withthe accelerated process of domestic financial market, China promote RMBinternationalization process, reform of exchange rate into the deep water area, crucialperiod, the RMB exchange rate formation will be largely determined by market supplyand demand, there will be more volatility. Therefore, with the formation anddevelopment of the mainland interbank FX forward market and expanding the size ofRMB Offshore Finance Center, the information between the leading relationshipcaused great concern in the academic circles and government, and has carried on thethorough research. The relationship between the guide of Hong Kong RMB offshoremarket, the mainland market and the inter-bank RMB non-deliverable forwardexchange market prices, not only help domestic enterprises, bank, individual investorson the exchange rate risk, to help the government supervision and management of themarket, make the effective economic policy.This article combines theory and empirical. Firstly, introducing the formation ofbank development and current situation, long-term RMB exchange market of HongKong offshore RMB market; and the mutual influence RMB exchange market theory isexpounded from two aspects, namely the forward and spot, offshore and onshore twolevels. In this paper, the use of interest rate parity theory to analyze the relationshipbetween forward and spot markets; the use of stationary test, cointegration test,Grainger causality test econometric methods, between the Hong Kong RMB NDFmarket and the domestic foreign exchange market in the long-run equilibriumrelationship, a positive analysis of the relationship between price guide. The studyfound: Although the spot market non-deliverable forward foreign exchange foroverseas (NDF) market prices have certain guidance function, but because the RMBmarket subject to certain policy regulation, no institutional environment of offshore RMB market loose, overseas without principal delivery forward foreign exchange(NDF) market on the spot market and foreign exchange long-term market priceguidance.