Research About The Regional Effect Of Deposit Reserve Ratio On Real Estate Price Fluctuations

Real estate industry has developed greatly recent years, and promotes the development of national economy. However, the real estate prices in some areas have risen much faster than the growth rate of gross domestic product since2005, which brings serious social and economic problems. So, the central bank takes measures actively, and the deposit reserve ratio is one of the main means of central bank monetary policy regulation, but the control effect is not ideal because of the regional effect. The real estate market development more mature in the first-tier cities, second-tier cities and third-tier cities, besides the real estate prices increase more evident than other regions, and how to regulate the housing prices effectively in these cities is important to the macroeconomic.This paper collected the data of the deposit reserve ratio and the housing sales price index in35large and medium-sized cities from July2005to the December2012,divided35cities into three types:first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities, according to the characteristics of the real estate market, and built the panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR),and empirically analyzes the regional effect of deposit reserve ratio on real estate price fluctuations in first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities, and get the relevant conclusions, then put forward countermeasures and suggestions.The structure of this paper is as follows:The opening chapter is Prolegomena in which introduced the background of this paper, the research purpose and meaning, research ideas and methods and the innovation of this paper.The second chapter is the theoretical basis. This chapter introduced the characteristics of the real estate market, the basis for the first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities division, also discussed the theoretical basis of monetary policy regulation, including the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, Keynesians monetary demand theory, Friedman currency quantity and Money Multiplier Theory.The third chapter is descriptive analysis on monetary policy and the real estate market in the first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities. Here, we qualitative analyzed the monetary policy changes, such as the reserve ratio, and then analyzed the construction starts, floor space of buildings completed, commercial housing sales area and sales prices in the first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities.The fourth chapter is the econometric analysis of the regional effect of the deposit reserve ratio on the housing price fluctuation, which is the main part of this paper. Firstly, introduced the PVAR model, and discussed the hypothesis and recognition of PVAR. Secondly, selected lag intervals and built the PVAR of this paper. At last, got the results of the regional effects of the communal reserve ratio policy on real estate prices in areas using the general method of moments, impulse response function and variance decomposition.In the last chapter, this paper put forward the countermeasures and suggestions.