| At the first decade of10years of the21st century, two world-wide economic crisisravaged the world. The risks of capital inflow of emerging market slow down or even reversal(defined as KIR) is gradually exposed. Capital inflows is helpful in the economic growth ofthe emerging market economies, but on other side, capital inflows and outflows pulled out anegative effects for the long-term economic development. The other hand, capital accountliberalization is a necessary part for the emerging markets to break through the bottleneck ofthe development, to enter a new stage of development. As the theoretical analyses,theexcessive openness of the capital account, will help the KIR crisis to make a strongerdestruction. Faced with this problem that the capital account open or not, what attitudeandmeasuresthe decision-makers of the emerging markets should take?it is worthy ofthinking. At the second chapter, starting from the point of view of the theory to sort out theexisting international definition of capital, and described the measure method of internationalcapital flows, the to build the emerging market economies "excessive freedom-accumulation-the outbreak‖KIR theory model; Based on the analysis and summary of the reality, thechapter III make study on structural characteristics of the21st century international capitalflows, from the emerging market perspective; The fourth and fifth chapter is to selectemerging-market economy countries as a study sample with2005to2011quarterly panel data.By using of fixed effects model, and the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel differential momentestimation model to analyze the output effect of the reversal of capital flows, Finally, thecapital account liberalization variable is introduced, and classification for the KIR is made, toanswer the questions that the emerging market economies should open capital account or not,and how to open the capital account; based on the on the findings, the last chapter give somepolicy suggestion from thought and operation. |
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