China’s Stock Market Fluctuation And Its Influencing Factors

Through the more than20spring and autumn period China’s stock market hasquite a scale， and in the development of economics has a more and more importantposition. After the founding of the Chinese stock market development processperspective，with the transformation of China’s economic development. China’s stockmarket is undergoing constant change process，but because of China’s capital marketdevelopment will be subject to monetary authorities macroeconomic policy influence.So there are a lot of imperfect places， such as market highing volatility and the stockprice often occur of crash. The econometric model used in the stock market incomedistribution and volatility characteristics study， helping to reveal the characteristicsof China’s stock market. Stock index represents the general characteristics of the stockmarket， and the risk of stock index is advantageous to grasp the whole marketfluctuation characteristic and the risk. The current domestic securities market the mostinfluential index includes，such as the shanghai composite index and shenzhencomponent index. This paper mainly to the above index as the research object，and theexpansion of China’s stock market income distribution with risking and wavingcharacteristics of empirical research.First of all，Chinese financing system change and market economic system toestablish and perfect the three stage， introduced briefly the development of China’sstock market. This paper analyzes the present situation of the development of thestock market. And also analyzes the Shanghai and shenzhen stock market prices andyields of basic statistical characteristics. Inspection Shanghai stock index andshenzhen composition index number and its index returns sequence of the statedistribution characteristic studied the two stock market index and the relationshipbetween the rate of return. From the family on ARCH model， the effects of theChinese stock market volatility heteroscedasticity、 cluster sex、 leverage effect andlong memory etc. Through the test index selected fitting comparison optimal model，and then according to the stock market fluctuation characteristics with the reality ofChina. Under the brief analysis of China’s stock market fluctuation causes.Secondly， based on the vector autoregression theory and the money supply，the bank interbank lending rates for financial policy main index. Industrial addedvalue growth rate， and consumer price index as control variable. The Shanghai indexconstructs four VAR model， which studies the single monetary policy on theperformance of the stock market volatility of individual influence and the financialpolicy index to the stock market fluctuation of the overall effect. It is concluded thatthe financial policy index to the stock market fluctuation explanation is not strongconclusion.Finally， analyzing the financial policy to the stock market volatility indexexplanation is not strong because China’s stock market’s own development isinsufficient， and at the same time the most important financial policy an indicator ofinterest rate is still not fully marketization， which led to the above three big financial policy index can’t fully effect.This puts forward related suggestions.