The Empirical Analysis On Influence Factors Of The Employment In China

One of the four major goals of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control toachieve is to reduce unemployment. As we all know, the employment is important to ourpeople and country. It not only has a great effect on the improvement of people’s livingstandards, in large level is also related to China’s current situation of reform developmentand stability as well as the country’s long period of stability. Therefore, this paper on thefactors affecting the employment of our country has its important theoretical significanceand practical significance of the research.Firstly, on the basis of the time, this paper in accordance with the order, is namely theclassical theory of employment, the employment theory of Keynes, the modern theory ofemployment and a series of employment theory analysis and research. Based on the theoryof this paper is modeling the Cobb-Douglas production function to describe, as theoreticalfoundation to analyze the employment factors, in order to make qualitative analysis andEmpirical Study on the following from the theoretical support. Then we analyze theemployment situation in China from various aspects. At present, the employment of laborsupply in China is far greater than demands, the surplus rural labor force is increasing, andthey transfer to the town increased pressure. From the structure of the current situation, thethree major industries of employment changes in the proportion of different changes. Theproportion of tertiary industry employment compared with one, two industry continues toimprove. Non-public enterprises and other units become the body of absorb labor, and hasgreat potential. In this paper, on the basis of extensive literature and empirical results of theaccess to employment problems at home and abroad, combined with the practicalapplication of the theory of employment, the analysis and research of a variety of factorsthat affect our employment from labor supply, demand, and supply and demand mixedrefining and combing factor of three in terms of the impact on employment indicators.Based on the employment target extraction and carding effect, we syntheticallyanalyze the influence of different indicators of long-term effect on employment andshort-term effect. We were selected for the annual data from1999to2011and the firstquarter of2006to the fourth quarter of2011quarterly data, and used stepwise regressionmethod to extract the long-term factors affecting employment indicators and short-termfactors indicators. In the selected basis factor screening, using annual data, set up by usingthe co-integration model about the employment of Douglas production function theory, theelasticity of employment town on foreign investment, final consumption expenditure, money supply changes.Based on the analysis of short-term factors, and using the quarterly data. We establishthe urban employment population, money supply, and foreign trade export as VAR modelvariables. We use the impulse response function and variance decomposition; show thatthere is an increasing trend to promote the role of the money supply and export onemployment. We draw a conclusion according to the model analysis. Then we use the grayprediction model to forecast employment for the next few years.Finally, we proceed from China’s employment status and the above conclusions.Weput forward the corresponding countermeasures to solve the employment situation inchina,separately from the implementation of the strategy of employment priority, toexpand the scale of foreign investment, appropriate monetary policy, we will focus oncommunity employment work, vigorously develop the tertiary industry, improve theemployment policy.