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Analysis On The Number Of China’s Iron Ore Imports And Related Economic Indicators

Posted on:2014-10-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J N ChenFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330401983709Subject:International Trade
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In recent years, along with high-speed development of China’s urbanizationprocess and the national economy, China’s iron and steel industry as a basic industry,not only strongly supports China’s economic construction, but also has a huge demandfor raw materials-iron ore. China’s domestic iron ore supply cannot effectively meetthe needs of the steel industry, and therefore can only rely on imports. China is a steelproducing country, but also an iron ore major importer. Since2003, import of China’siron ore maintains a high number-high price trend. Because of economic developmentand infrastructure needs, China maintains a large demand for iron ore. China’sgrowing demand for iron ore in the international iron ore trade market affects theinternational price of iron ore, the international iron price is also affected by the"China factor" to some extent. That, international iron ore prices can remain steadyincrease, China’s iron ore imports growing is the important reason. Iron ore pricesaccounts for about40%of the cost of steel products, is one of the largest part of thecost, so that the increase in the cost makes iron and steel enterprises rise costs anddecline margins. At the same time, domestic statistics shows that growth trend ofcrude steel output, which can measure China’s steel demand, is not so obvious. Anddomestic iron ore port stocks continue to remain at a relatively high level. Scholarsalready analysis, There is blind imports of iron ore in our country, the existence of thissituation will damage China’s iron and steel enterprises and their downstreamindustries. Therefore, to analyze the relevant factors and to judge whether the currentimports development trend of China’s iron ore is reasonable is the important task.Firstly, this paper adopts econometric methods to study the relationship betweenthe import quantity of iron ore of China and the crude steel production of China, ironore import prices of China, the international freight of iron ore and the purchasemanagement index of China manufacturing industry, basing the monthly data of theabove index from January2007to December2012. Then, according to the regression result, analyze the numerical relation between the import and the related indexes andthe impact of movement of these indexes on the import, by this the paper couldobserve the real situation of the imported iron ore of China and detect the existingproblems, and more importantly, predict the influence of the imported quantity of ironore on the development of the whole country. At last, considering the existingproblems of current situation, plus the analysis of the impact of all factors, this paperput forward some practical some suggestions regarding the further development of theimported iron ore trade of China.
Keywords/Search Tags:China’s iron ore imports, China’s crude steel production, iron oreimport price, cointegration test, Granger causality test
PDF Full Text Request
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