System Simulation Research Of U.S. Quantitative Easing Policy Affect Chinese Macroeconomic

Since2008, the international financial crisis seriously affected the economy inthe United States. Since September in2008, in order to get rid of this situation, the fedhas launched a round of quantitative easing, to inject a large amount of liquidity in theinternational market, hoping to boost consumption and credit demand, ease the severeemployment situation, the domestic economic recovery. As the dollar internationalmonetary’s special status, a lot more dollars into the international market, is bound tothe rest of the world, especially emerging economies of the countries represented byChina’s far-reaching impact. Since reform and opening up, China’s close economicties with the United States, its foreign exchange reserves of us Treasury bondsaccount for a large proportion, and compared with the developed countries andChina’sfinancial system is not perfect, therefore, the United States quantitative easingwill be multifaceted impact and influence to China.This paper generalizes the research literature on quantitative easing, and thenintroduces the concepts and theories of system were also involved. Then, related tothe quantitative easing of America situation were summarized, including the contentand nature of several rounds of quantitative easing, it divides the stage ofimplementation, and evaluation of the effect. Then, the article divides the from fiveaspects the influence factors of China’s macro economy, on the basis of the study ofChina’s macroeconomic situation were summarized, and put forward the problems inmacroeconomic research, and establish the index system of the factors that affectChina’s macro economy.The article main body part respectively from two aspects of theory and practiceon quantitative easing by the federal reserve’s influence on China to do the analysis.Theoretical analysis, the article points four aspects analyzes the quantitativeeasing by the federal reserve may have impact on China’s macro economy. First,quantitative easing policy brings the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, risein the RMB exchange rate caused; Second, from the aspect of export trade, super hairdollar triggered a weak dollar, the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, exportvolume of trade fell sharply after the first round of quantitative easing, in subsequentrounds of quantitative easing after launch, have experienced varying degrees of decline. Third, in terms of inflation, quantitative easing (qe) policies to promote theinternational commodity prices, as one of America’s largest trading partner in China,the domestic product prices also will rise; In addition, a lot more dollars drawn toChinese investment, lead to imported inflation; Fourth, quantitative easing is a hugeimpact on China’s foreign exchange reserves, reduce overweight U.S. bondinvestment yields, purchasing power shrink in foreign exchange reserves, China into"stiglitz circles", cause a greater loss. Fifth, quantitative easing, the consumer marketfor the influx of hot money makes market more active investment.The empirical analysis, the article is divided into two part research the fed’squantitative easing policy impact on China’s macroeconomic. First part using vectorautoregression model, this paper analyzes the U.S. quantitative easing policy to ourcountry GDP, money supply, total retail sales of social consumer goods such as theimpulse response analysis, the results found that the fed’s quantitative easing policyon China’s macro economy caused some bad effects, but with the development of oureconomy and the corresponding policies, this kind of undesirable influence decreasegradually.The second part constructs the system dynamic flow diagram, based on theanalysis of macro economic effect and comb on behalf of our country macroeconomic factors, and then established the financial market and the residents’consumption market of China of cause and effect diagram, based on the Vensim PLEsoftware builds the system dynamics flow graph, points indicator variables andanalyses the influence of the fed’s quantitative easing policy of our country’smacroeconomic impact, draw the conclusion: the fed’s quantitative easing policy, leadto China’s GDP growth, exports relatively, banking investment risk in financialmarkets, consumer prices will rise high in a certain extent.By the end of the article, put forward China in the face of the fed’s quantitativeeasing policy should take countermeasures and measures, including strengthen theregulation of inflows of hot money and promote RMB internationalization,diversification of foreign exchange reserves, increase financial investment in scienceand technology and encouraging overseas investment, etc.